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The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the U.S. Economy: Evidence from the Stock Market

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  • Willem THORBECKE

Abstract

The coronavirus crisis has damaged the U.S. economy. This paper uses stock returns on 125 sectors to investigate its impact. It decomposes returns into components driven by sector-specific factors and by macroeconomic factors. Idiosyncratic factors harmed industries such as airlines, aerospace, real estate, tourism, oil, brewers, retail apparel, and funerals. There are thus large swaths of the economy whose recovery depends not on the macroeconomic environment but on controlling the pandemic. Macroeconomic factors generated losses in industries such as production equipment, machinery, and electronic & electrical equipment. Thus reviving capital goods spending requires not just an end to the pandemic but a macroeconomic recovery.

Suggested Citation

  • Willem THORBECKE, 2020. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the U.S. Economy: Evidence from the Stock Market," Discussion papers 20068, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    • Handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:20068
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    3. Erdal Erol & Sayed H. Saghaian, 2022. "The COVID-19 Pandemic and Dynamics of Price Adjustment in the U.S. Beef Sector," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-14, April.
    4. Guo, Xu & Li, Runze & Liu, Jingyuan & Zeng, Mudong, 2024. "Reprint: Statistical inference for linear mediation models with high-dimensional mediators and application to studying stock reaction to COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 239(2).
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    6. Larissa Batrancea, 2021. "The Nexus between Financial Performance and Equilibrium: Empirical Evidence on Publicly Traded Companies from the Global Financial Crisis Up to the COVID-19 Pandemic," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-12, May.
    7. Szczygielski, Jan Jakub & Brzeszczyński, Janusz & Charteris, Ailie & Bwanya, Princess Rutendo, 2022. "The COVID-19 storm and the energy sector: The impact and role of uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    8. Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Ahmad, Nasir & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2022. "Dependence dynamics of US REITs," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    9. Nikolaos Apostolopoulos & Panagiotis Liargovas & Nikolaos Rodousakis & George Soklis, 2022. "COVID-19 in US Economy: Structural Analysis and Policy Proposals," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-15, June.
    10. Guo, Xu & Li, Runze & Liu, Jingyuan & Zeng, Mudong, 2023. "Statistical inference for linear mediation models with high-dimensional mediators and application to studying stock reaction to COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(1), pages 166-179.
    11. Yarovaya, Larisa & Brzeszczyński, Janusz & Goodell, John W. & Lucey, Brian & Lau, Chi Keung Marco, 2022. "Rethinking financial contagion: Information transmission mechanism during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    12. Oncu, Erdem, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 on health sector stock returns," MPRA Paper 111032, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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