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Seasonality in multi-host disease systems

Author

Listed:
  • Nguyen, David
  • Wakhare, Tanay
  • Jiao, Jing
  • Myers, Kellen
  • Udiani, Oyita
  • Fefferman, Nina H.

Abstract

Demographic processes have long been known to critically impact population-level epidemic dynamics. Within a single ecosystem, a novel pathogen may circulate among multiple species, each with different seasonal demographic patterns. We investigate the synergy between these different seasonal demographic processes and epidemic dynamics in a two-host disease system. While differences in disease burden between hosts are often explained by immunological differences, behavior, or social contact structures, we find that different demographic patterns alone can also drive differences in disease burden over time, even with only two host species. Most importantly, we show how the timing of disease introduction relative to annual birth cycles in one species can profoundly, and potentially unpredictably or unexpectedly, influence disease dynamics in both host species.

Suggested Citation

  • Nguyen, David & Wakhare, Tanay & Jiao, Jing & Myers, Kellen & Udiani, Oyita & Fefferman, Nina H., 2022. "Seasonality in multi-host disease systems," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 470(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:470:y:2022:i:c:s0304380022000886
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2022.109973
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Carol Y. Lin, 2008. "Modeling Infectious Diseases in Humans and Animals by KEELING, M. J. and ROHANI, P," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 64(3), pages 993-993, September.
    3. Gregory F. Albery & Evan A. Eskew & Noam Ross & Kevin J. Olival, 2020. "Predicting the global mammalian viral sharing network using phylogeography," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-9, December.
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