IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/apmaco/v468y2024ics0096300323006951.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On the exact and population bi-dimensional reproduction numbers in a stochastic SVIR model with imperfect vaccine

Author

Listed:
  • Gamboa, M.
  • López-García, M.
  • Lopez-Herrero, M.J.

Abstract

We aim to quantify the spread of a direct contact infectious disease that confers permanent immunity after recovery, within a non-isolated finite and homogeneous population. Prior to the onset of the infection and to prevent the spread of this disease, a proportion of individuals was vaccinated. But the administered vaccine is imperfect and can fail, which implies that some vaccinated individuals get the infection when being in contact with infectious individuals. We study the evolution of the epidemic process over time in terms of a continuous-time Markov chain, which represents a general SIR model with an additional compartment for vaccinated individuals. In our stochastic framework, we study two bi-dimensional variables recording infection events, produced by a single infectious individual or by the whole infected group, taking into account if the newly infected individual was previously vaccinated or not. Theoretical schemes and recursive algorithms are derived in order to compute joint probability mass functions and factorial moments for these random variables. We illustrate the applicability of our techniques by means of a set of numerical experiments.

Suggested Citation

  • Gamboa, M. & López-García, M. & Lopez-Herrero, M.J., 2024. "On the exact and population bi-dimensional reproduction numbers in a stochastic SVIR model with imperfect vaccine," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 468(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:apmaco:v:468:y:2024:i:c:s0096300323006951
    DOI: 10.1016/j.amc.2023.128526
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0096300323006951
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.amc.2023.128526?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lin, Yuguo & Jiang, Daqing & Wang, Shuai, 2014. "Stationary distribution of a stochastic SIS epidemic model with vaccination," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 394(C), pages 187-197.
    2. Carol Y. Lin, 2008. "Modeling Infectious Diseases in Humans and Animals by KEELING, M. J. and ROHANI, P," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 64(3), pages 993-993, September.
    3. Cai, Yongli & Jiao, Jianjun & Gui, Zhanji & Liu, Yuting & Wang, Weiming, 2018. "Environmental variability in a stochastic epidemic model," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 329(C), pages 210-226.
    4. Wang, Xinyu & Jia, Danyang & Gao, Shupeng & Xia, Chengyi & Li, Xuelong & Wang, Zhen, 2020. "Vaccination behavior by coupling the epidemic spreading with the human decision under the game theory," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 380(C).
    5. Cai, Yongli & Kang, Yun & Wang, Weiming, 2017. "A stochastic SIRS epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rate," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 305(C), pages 221-240.
    6. Imane Abouelkheir & Fadwa El Kihal & Mostafa Rachik & Ilias Elmouki, 2019. "Optimal Impulse Vaccination Approach for an SIR Control Model with Short-Term Immunity," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 7(5), pages 1-21, May.
    7. Zhang, Mengqing & Zhang, Qimin, 2019. "A positivity preserving numerical method for stochastic R&D model," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 351(C), pages 193-203.
    8. Driss Kiouach & Lahcen Boulaasair, 2018. "Stationary Distribution and Dynamic Behaviour of a Stochastic SIVR Epidemic Model with Imperfect Vaccine," Journal of Applied Mathematics, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-11, July.
    9. Amine El Koufi & Jihad Adnani & Abdelkrim Bennar & Noura Yousfi, 2019. "Analysis of a Stochastic SIR Model with Vaccination and Nonlinear Incidence Rate," International Journal of Differential Equations, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-9, August.
    10. Ross, J.V. & Pagendam, D.E. & Pollett, P.K., 2009. "On parameter estimation in population models II: Multi-dimensional processes and transient dynamics," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 123-132.
    11. Maria Gamboa & Maria Jesus Lopez-Herrero, 2020. "The Effect of Setting a Warning Vaccination Level on a Stochastic SIVS Model with Imperfect Vaccine," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(7), pages 1-23, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lan, Guijie & Chen, Zhewen & Wei, Chunjin & Zhang, Shuwen, 2018. "Stationary distribution of a stochastic SIQR epidemic model with saturated incidence and degenerate diffusion," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 511(C), pages 61-77.
    2. Wang, Lei & Gao, Chunjie & Rifhat, Ramziya & Wang, Kai & Teng, Zhidong, 2024. "Stationary distribution and bifurcation analysis for a stochastic SIS model with nonlinear incidence and degenerate diffusion," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    3. Liu, Qun & Jiang, Daqing & Hayat, Tasawar & Alsaedi, Ahmed & Ahmad, Bashir, 2020. "A stochastic SIRS epidemic model with logistic growth and general nonlinear incidence rate," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 551(C).
    4. Liu, Qun & Jiang, Daqing, 2020. "Threshold behavior in a stochastic SIR epidemic model with Logistic birth," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 540(C).
    5. Lan, Guijie & Wei, Chunjin & Zhang, Shuwen, 2019. "Long time behaviors of single-species population models with psychological effect and impulsive toxicant in polluted environments," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 521(C), pages 828-842.
    6. Liu, Qun & Jiang, Daqing, 2020. "Stationary distribution of a stochastic cholera model with imperfect vaccination," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 550(C).
    7. Xu, Jiang & Chen, Tao & Wen, Xiangdan, 2021. "Analysis of a Bailey–Dietz model for vector-borne disease under regime switching," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 580(C).
    8. Zhou, Baoquan & Jiang, Daqing & Han, Bingtao & Hayat, Tasawar, 2022. "Threshold dynamics and density function of a stochastic epidemic model with media coverage and mean-reverting Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 15-44.
    9. Wen, Buyu & Teng, Zhidong & Li, Zhiming, 2018. "The threshold of a periodic stochastic SIVS epidemic model with nonlinear incidence," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 508(C), pages 532-549.
    10. Bao, Kangbo & Zhang, Qimin & Rong, Libin & Li, Xining, 2019. "Dynamics of an imprecise SIRS model with Lévy jumps," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 520(C), pages 489-506.
    11. Liu, Qun & Jiang, Daqing & Hayat, Tasawar & Alsaedi, Ahmed & Ahmad, Bashir, 2020. "Threshold behavior in two types of stochastic three strains influenza virus models," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 549(C).
    12. Liu, Qun & Jiang, Daqing & Hayat, Tasawar & Alsaedi, Ahmed & Ahmad, Bashir, 2020. "Stationary distribution of a stochastic cholera model between communities linked by migration," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 373(C).
    13. Cai, Yongli & Ding, Zuqin & Yang, Bin & Peng, Zhihang & Wang, Weiming, 2019. "Transmission dynamics of Zika virus with spatial structure—A case study in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 514(C), pages 729-740.
    14. Wang, Weiming & Cai, Yongli & Ding, Zuqin & Gui, Zhanji, 2018. "A stochastic differential equation SIS epidemic model incorporating Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 509(C), pages 921-936.
    15. Khatun, Mst Sebi & Mahato, Kiriti Bhusan & Das, Pritha, 2024. "Dynamics of an SuSaV IR epidemic model with stochastic optimal control and awareness programs," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    16. Raimund M. Kovacevic, 2018. "Stochastic contagion models without immunity: their long term behaviour and the optimal level of treatment," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 26(2), pages 395-421, June.
    17. Tiancai Liao & Hengguo Yu & Chuanjun Dai & Min Zhao, 2019. "Impact of Cell Size Effect on Nutrient-Phytoplankton Dynamics," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-23, November.
    18. Liu, Qun & Jiang, Daqing & He, Xiuli & Hayat, Tasawar & Alsaedi, Ahmed, 2019. "Stationary distribution of a stochastic predator–prey model with distributed delay and general functional response," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 513(C), pages 273-287.
    19. Ran, Xue & Hu, Lin & Nie, Lin-Fei & Teng, Zhidong, 2021. "Effects of stochastic perturbation and vaccinated age on a vector-borne epidemic model with saturation incidence rate," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 394(C).
    20. Ross, J.V., 2012. "On parameter estimation in population models III: Time-inhomogeneous processes and observation error," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 1-17.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:apmaco:v:468:y:2024:i:c:s0096300323006951. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/applied-mathematics-and-computation .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.