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The annual abundance of dengue and Zika vector Aedes albopictus and its stubbornness to suppression

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  • Zheng, Bo
  • Yu, Jianshe
  • Xi, Zhiyong
  • Tang, Moxun

Abstract

The mosquito Aedes albopictus is a competent vector for more than 25 arboviruses, including dengue and Zika, and the sole vector for the 2014 unprecedented dengue outbreak in southern China. Due to the lack of a deep understanding of how its seasonal abundance is tied to environments, current methods have failed to control its prevalence and expansion on a large scale. In this paper, we develop a comprehensive model of difference equations that incorporates mosquito age at the four developmental stages, egg diapause, larval density competition, and the meteorological data for temperature, precipitation, and humidity, to predict the mosquito abundance over time in southern China. The generated temporal profile is robust against the variation of initial inputs, and matches well with the measurements in a northeast district in Guangzhou in 2013 and 2014 with a correlation coefficient R2 ≈ 0.9511. We find that chemical interventions have only a temporary effect; once the intervention is terminated, mosquito population bounces back quickly. Moreover, improper adulticide applications facilitate a fast spread of insecticide resistance. The resistance spread is quantified and the optimal intensity and frequency of chemical interventions are simulated. These findings remain to be tested by more real data and our methods can be adapted to other geographic areas and/or mosquito species for designing better mosquito control strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Zheng, Bo & Yu, Jianshe & Xi, Zhiyong & Tang, Moxun, 2018. "The annual abundance of dengue and Zika vector Aedes albopictus and its stubbornness to suppression," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 387(C), pages 38-48.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:387:y:2018:i:c:p:38-48
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2018.09.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cailly, Priscilla & Tran, Annelise & Balenghien, Thomas & L’Ambert, Grégory & Toty, Céline & Ezanno, Pauline, 2012. "A climate-driven abundance model to assess mosquito control strategies," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 227(C), pages 7-17.
    2. Erickson, Richard A. & Presley, Steven M. & Allen, Linda J.S. & Long, Kevin R. & Cox, Stephen B., 2010. "A stage-structured, Aedes albopictus population model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(9), pages 1273-1282.
    3. M. Petrić & B. Lalić & E. Ducheyne & V. Djurdjević & D. Petrić, 2017. "Modelling the regional impact of climate change on the suitability of the establishment of the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) in Serbia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 142(3), pages 361-374, June.
    4. Andrew J. Monaghan & K. M. Sampson & D. F. Steinhoff & K. C. Ernst & K. L. Ebi & B. Jones & M. H. Hayden, 2018. "The potential impacts of 21st century climatic and population changes on human exposure to the virus vector mosquito Aedes aegypti," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 487-500, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lijie Chang & Yantao Shi & Bo Zheng, 2021. "Existence and Uniqueness of Nontrivial Periodic Solutions to a Discrete Switching Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(19), pages 1-13, September.
    2. Virgillito, Chiara & Manica, Mattia & Marini, Giovanni & Caputo, Beniamino & Torre, Alessandra della & Rosà, Roberto, 2021. "Modelling arthropod active dispersal using Partial differential equations: the case of the mosquito Aedes albopictus," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 456(C).
    3. Qiming Huang & Lijie Chang & Zhaowang Zhang & Bo Zheng, 2023. "Global Dynamics for Competition between Two Wolbachia Strains with Bidirectional Cytoplasmic Incompatibility," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-21, April.
    4. Xingtong Liu & Yuanshun Tan & Bo Zheng, 2022. "Dynamic Behavior of an Interactive Mosquito Model under Stochastic Interference," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(13), pages 1-18, June.

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