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A stage-structured, Aedes albopictus population model

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  • Erickson, Richard A.
  • Presley, Steven M.
  • Allen, Linda J.S.
  • Long, Kevin R.
  • Cox, Stephen B.

Abstract

Aedes albopictus has been the fastest spreading invasive animal species in the world from the mid-1980s until the mid-2000s. In areas it infests, it disrupts native mosquito ecology and can potentially vector up to 21 viruses. To better understand the population dynamics of this species, we created a temperature dependent population model. A stage-structured model was chosen to allow each life-stage to have different temperature dependent mortality and development rates, and each stage was modeled with an ordinary differential equation. Model parameters and distributions were based upon literature values. Initially, a basic model was constructed. This model then had parameters that were forced based upon daily average temperatures. Several criteria were used to evaluate the model, including a comparison to field data from Lubbock, TX. In a stochastic version of the model, a 95% confidence limit contained 70.7% of the field data points. Based upon these results, we feel reasonably confident that we have captured the role of temperature in driving the population dynamics of Ae. albopictus.

Suggested Citation

  • Erickson, Richard A. & Presley, Steven M. & Allen, Linda J.S. & Long, Kevin R. & Cox, Stephen B., 2010. "A stage-structured, Aedes albopictus population model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(9), pages 1273-1282.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:221:y:2010:i:9:p:1273-1282
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2010.01.018
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Josef Zapletal & Madhav Erraguntla & Zach N Adelman & Kevin M Myles & Mark A Lawley, 2018. "Impacts of diurnal temperature and larval density on aquatic development of Aedes aegypti," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(3), pages 1-16, March.
    2. Josef Zapletal & Himanshu Gupta & Madhav Erraguntla & Zach N Adelman & Kevin M Myles & Mark A Lawley, 2019. "Predicting aquatic development and mortality rates of Aedes aegypti," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(5), pages 1-8, May.
    3. Walker, Melody & Robert, Michael A. & Childs, Lauren M., 2021. "The importance of density dependence in juvenile mosquito development and survival: A model-based investigation," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 440(C).
    4. Giovanni Marini & Piero Poletti & Mario Giacobini & Andrea Pugliese & Stefano Merler & Roberto Rosà, 2016. "The Role of Climatic and Density Dependent Factors in Shaping Mosquito Population Dynamics: The Case of Culex pipiens in Northwestern Italy," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(4), pages 1-15, April.
    5. LonÄ arić, Željka & K. Hackenberger, Branimir, 2013. "Stage and age structured Aedes vexans and Culex pipiens (Diptera: Culicidae) climate-dependent matrix population model," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 82-94.
    6. Zheng, Bo & Yu, Jianshe & Xi, Zhiyong & Tang, Moxun, 2018. "The annual abundance of dengue and Zika vector Aedes albopictus and its stubbornness to suppression," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 387(C), pages 38-48.
    7. Erickson, Richard A. & Presley, Steven M. & Allen, Linda J.S. & Long, Kevin R. & Cox, Stephen B., 2010. "A dengue model with a dynamic Aedes albopictus vector population," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(24), pages 2899-2908.

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