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A Rainfall- and Temperature-Driven Abundance Model for Aedes albopictus Populations

Author

Listed:
  • Annelise Tran

    (CIRAD, UPR AGIRs, Montpellier F-34398, France
    CIRAD, UMR TETIS, Montpellier F-34398, France
    Authors who contributed equally to the work.)

  • Grégory L'Ambert

    (EID Méditerranée, Montpellier F-34184, France
    Authors who contributed equally to the work.)

  • Guillaume Lacour

    (EID Méditerranée, Montpellier F-34184, France
    Biodiversity Research Center, Earth and Life Institute, Université Catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve B-1348, Belgium
    Authors who contributed equally to the work.)

  • Romain Benoît

    (EID Méditerranée, Montpellier F-34184, France)

  • Marie Demarchi

    (SIRS, Montpellier F-34093, France)

  • Myriam Cros

    (EID Méditerranée, Montpellier F-34184, France)

  • Priscilla Cailly

    (CIRAD, UPR AGIRs, Montpellier F-34398, France
    INRA, UMR1300 Biologie, épidémiologie et analyse de risques en santé animale, Nantes F-44307, France
    ONIRIS, LUNAM Université Nantes Angers Le Mans, Nantes F-44307, France)

  • Mélaine Aubry-Kientz

    (INRA, UMR1300 Biologie, épidémiologie et analyse de risques en santé animale, Nantes F-44307, France
    ONIRIS, LUNAM Université Nantes Angers Le Mans, Nantes F-44307, France
    CIRAD, UMR CMAEE, Montpellier F-34398, France)

  • Thomas Balenghien

    (CIRAD, UMR CMAEE, Montpellier F-34398, France)

  • Pauline Ezanno

    (INRA, UMR1300 Biologie, épidémiologie et analyse de risques en santé animale, Nantes F-44307, France
    ONIRIS, LUNAM Université Nantes Angers Le Mans, Nantes F-44307, France)

Abstract

The mosquito Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus ( Skuse ) ( Diptera: Culicidae ) is an invasive species which has colonized Southern Europe in the last two decades. As it is a competent vector for several arboviruses, its spread is of increasing public health concern, and there is a need for appropriate monitoring tools. In this paper, we have developed a modelling approach to predict mosquito abundance over time, and identify the main determinants of mosquito population dynamics. The model is temperature- and rainfall-driven, takes into account egg diapause during unfavourable periods, and was used to model the population dynamics of Ae. albopictus in the French Riviera since 2008. Entomological collections of egg stage from six locations in Nice conurbation were used for model validation. We performed a sensitivity analysis to identify the key parameters of the mosquito population dynamics. Results showed that the model correctly predicted entomological field data (Pearson r correlation coefficient values range from 0.73 to 0.93). The model’s main control points were related to adult’s mortality rates, the carrying capacity in pupae of the environment, and the beginning of the unfavourable period. The proposed model can be efficiently used as a tool to predict Ae. albopictus population dynamics, and to assess the efficiency of different control strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Annelise Tran & Grégory L'Ambert & Guillaume Lacour & Romain Benoît & Marie Demarchi & Myriam Cros & Priscilla Cailly & Mélaine Aubry-Kientz & Thomas Balenghien & Pauline Ezanno, 2013. "A Rainfall- and Temperature-Driven Abundance Model for Aedes albopictus Populations," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-22, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:10:y:2013:i:5:p:1698-1719:d:25316
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Linard, Catherine & Ponçon, Nicolas & Fontenille, Didier & Lambin, Eric F., 2009. "A multi-agent simulation to assess the risk of malaria re-emergence in southern France," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(2), pages 160-174.
    2. Sébastien Marcombe & Frédéric Darriet & Michel Tolosa & Philip Agnew & Stéphane Duchon & Manuel Etienne & Marie Michèle Yp Tcha & Fabrice Chandre & Vincent Corbel & André Yébakima, 2011. "Pyrethroid Resistance Reduces the Efficacy of Space Sprays for Dengue Control on the Island of Martinique (Caribbean)," PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(6), pages 1-9, June.
    3. Cailly, Priscilla & Tran, Annelise & Balenghien, Thomas & L’Ambert, Grégory & Toty, Céline & Ezanno, Pauline, 2012. "A climate-driven abundance model to assess mosquito control strategies," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 227(C), pages 7-17.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fátima Goiri & Mikel Alexander González & Joseba Goikolea & Madalen Oribe & Visitación de Castro & Sarah Delacour & Javier Lucientes & Ione Ortega-Araiztegi & Jesús Felix Barandika & Ana Luisa García-, 2020. "Progressive Invasion of Aedes albopictus in Northern Spain in The Period 2013–2018 and A Possible Association with The Increase in Insect Bites," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(5), pages 1-14, March.
    2. Beniamino Caputo & Mattia Manica & Federico Filipponi & Marta Blangiardo & Pietro Cobre & Luca Delucchi & Carlo Maria De Marco & Luca Iesu & Paola Morano & Valeria Petrella & Marco Salvemini & Cesare , 2020. "ZanzaMapp: A Scalable Citizen Science Tool to Monitor Perception of Mosquito Abundance and Nuisance in Italy and Beyond," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(21), pages 1-19, October.
    3. Lingcai Kong & Jinfeng Wang & Zhongjie Li & Shengjie Lai & Qiyong Liu & Haixia Wu & Weizhong Yang, 2018. "Modeling the Heterogeneity of Dengue Transmission in a City," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-21, May.
    4. Zheng, Zhoumin & Xu, Nuo & Khan, Mohsin & Pedersen, Michael & Abdalgader, Tarteel & Zhang, Lai, 2024. "Nonlinear impacts of climate change on dengue transmission in mainland China: Underlying mechanisms and future projection," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 492(C).
    5. Jan C. Semenza, 2015. "Prototype Early Warning Systems for Vector-Borne Diseases in Europe," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-19, June.
    6. Céline Christiansen-Jucht & Kamil Erguler & Chee Yan Shek & María-Gloria Basáñez & Paul E. Parham, 2015. "Modelling Anopheles gambiae s.s. Population Dynamics with Temperature- and Age-Dependent Survival," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-31, May.

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