IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v354y2017icp88-103.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Advances in crop insect modelling methods—Towards a whole system approach

Author

Listed:
  • Tonnang, Henri E.Z.
  • Hervé, Bisseleua D.B.
  • Biber-Freudenberger, Lisa
  • Salifu, Daisy
  • Subramanian, Sevgan
  • Ngowi, Valentine B.
  • Guimapi, Ritter Y.A.
  • Anani, Bruce
  • Kakmeni, Francois M.M.
  • Affognon, Hippolyte
  • Niassy, Saliou
  • Landmann, Tobias
  • Ndjomatchoua, Frank T.
  • Pedro, Sansao A.
  • Johansson, Tino
  • Tanga, Chrysantus M.
  • Nana, Paulin
  • Fiaboe, Komi M.
  • Mohamed, Samira F.
  • Maniania, Nguya K.
  • Nedorezov, Lev V.
  • Ekesi, Sunday
  • Borgemeister, Christian

Abstract

A wide range of insects affect crop production and cause considerable yield losses. Difficulties reside on the development and adaptation of adequate strategies to predict insect pests for their timely management to ensure enhanced agricultural production. Several conceptual modelling frameworks have been proposed, and the choice of an approach depends largely on the objective of the model and the availability of data. This paper presents a summary of decades of advances in insect population dynamics, phenology models, distribution and risk mapping. Existing challenges on the modelling of insects are listed; followed by innovations in the field. New approaches include artificial neural networks, cellular automata (CA) coupled with fuzzy logic (FL), fractal, multi-fractal, percolation, synchronization and individual/agent-based approaches. A concept for assessing climate change impacts and providing adaptation options for agricultural pest management independently of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios is suggested. A framework for estimating losses and optimizing yields within crop production system is proposed and a summary on modelling the economic impact of pests control is presented. The assessment shows that the majority of known insect modelling approaches are not holistic; they only concentrate on a single component of the system, i.e. the pest, rather than the whole crop production system. We suggest system thinking as a possible approach for linking crop, pest, and environmental conditions to provide a more comprehensive assessment of agricultural crop production.

Suggested Citation

  • Tonnang, Henri E.Z. & Hervé, Bisseleua D.B. & Biber-Freudenberger, Lisa & Salifu, Daisy & Subramanian, Sevgan & Ngowi, Valentine B. & Guimapi, Ritter Y.A. & Anani, Bruce & Kakmeni, Francois M.M. & Aff, 2017. "Advances in crop insect modelling methods—Towards a whole system approach," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 354(C), pages 88-103.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:354:y:2017:i:c:p:88-103
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2017.03.015
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030438001630549X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2017.03.015?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cao, Yong & DeWalt, R. Edward & Robinson, Jason L. & Tweddale, Tari & Hinz, Leon & Pessino, Massimo, 2013. "Using Maxent to model the historic distributions of stonefly species in Illinois streams: The effects of regularization and threshold selections," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 259(C), pages 30-39.
    2. Maiorano, Andrea & Bregaglio, Simone & Donatelli, Marcello & Fumagalli, Davide & Zucchini, Antonio, 2012. "Comparison of modelling approaches to simulate the phenology of the European corn borer under future climate scenarios," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 245(C), pages 65-74.
    3. Roderick M. Rejesus & Florencia G. Palis & Aileen V. Lapitan & Truong Thi Ngoc Chi & Mahabub Hossain, 2009. "The Impact of Integrated Pest Management Information Dissemination Methods on Insecticide Use and Efficiency: Evidence from Rice Producers in South Vietnam," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 31(4), pages 814-833, December.
    4. Andriantiatsaholiniaina, Luc A. & Kouikoglou, Vassilis S. & Phillis, Yannis A., 2004. "Evaluating strategies for sustainable development: fuzzy logic reasoning and sensitivity analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 149-172, February.
    5. Carlberg, Eric & Kostandini, Genti & Dankyi, Awere, 2012. "The Effects of Integrated Pest Management Techniques (IPM) Farmer Field Schools on Groundnut Productivity: Evidence from Ghana," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124876, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Peter A. Stott & J. A. Kettleborough, 2002. "Erratum: Origins and estimates of uncertainty in predictions of twenty-first century temperature rise," Nature, Nature, vol. 417(6885), pages 205-205, May.
    7. Shahidur R. Khandker & Gayatri B. Koolwal & Hussain A. Samad, . "Handbook on Impact Evaluation : Quantitative Methods and Practices," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 2693, September.
    8. Tonnang, Henri E.Z. & Nedorezov, Lev V. & Ochanda, Horace & Owino, John & Löhr, Bernhard, 2009. "Assessing the impact of biological control of Plutella xylostella through the application of Lotka–Volterra model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(1), pages 60-70.
    9. Stokland, Jogeir N. & Halvorsen, Rune & Støa, Bente, 2011. "Species distribution modelling—Effect of design and sample size of pseudo-absence observations," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(11), pages 1800-1809.
    10. Aurambout, J.P. & Finlay, K.J. & Luck, J. & Beattie, G.A.C., 2009. "A concept model to estimate the potential distribution of the Asiatic citrus psyllid (Diaphorina citri Kuwayama) in Australia under climate change—A means for assessing biosecurity risk," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(19), pages 2512-2524.
    11. Guido W. Imbens & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2009. "Recent Developments in the Econometrics of Program Evaluation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 5-86, March.
    12. Walters, Jeffrey P. & Archer, David W. & Sassenrath, Gretchen F. & Hendrickson, John R. & Hanson, Jon D. & Halloran, John M. & Vadas, Peter & Alarcon, Vladimir J., 2016. "Exploring agricultural production systems and their fundamental components with system dynamics modelling," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 333(C), pages 51-65.
    13. De Groote, H. & Ajuonu, O. & Attignon, S. & Djessou, R. & Neuenschwander, P., 2003. "Economic impact of biological control of water hyacinth in Southern Benin," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 105-117, April.
    14. Watts, Michael J. & Worner, S.P., 2009. "Estimating the risk of insect species invasion: Kohonen self-organising maps versus k-means clustering," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(6), pages 821-829.
    15. Santi Sanglestsawai & Roderick M. Rejesus & Jose M. Yorobe Jr., 2015. "Economic impacts of integrated pest management (IPM) farmer field schools (FFS): evidence from onion farmers in the Philippines," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 46(2), pages 149-162, March.
    16. Blum, Moshe & Lensky, Itamar M. & Rempoulakis, Polychronis & Nestel, David, 2015. "Modeling insect population fluctuations with satellite land surface temperature," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 311(C), pages 39-47.
    17. Elbehri, Aziz & Macdonald, Steve, 2004. "Estimating the Impact of Transgenic Bt Cotton on West and Central Africa: A General Equilibrium Approach," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2049-2064, December.
    18. Richard B. Norgaard, 1988. "The Biological Control of Cassava Mealybug in Africa," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 70(2), pages 366-371.
    19. Peter A. Stott & J. A. Kettleborough, 2002. "Origins and estimates of uncertainty in predictions of twenty-first century temperature rise," Nature, Nature, vol. 416(6882), pages 723-726, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Neta, Ayana & Gafni, Roni & Elias, Hilit & Bar-Shmuel, Nitsan & Shaltiel-Harpaz, Liora & Morin, Efrat & Morin, Shai, 2021. "Decision support for pest management: Using field data for optimizing temperature-dependent population dynamics models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 440(C).
    2. Tay, Ahmad & Lafont, Frédéric & Balmat, Jean-François & Pessel, Nathalie & Lhoste-Drouineau, Ange, 2021. "Decision support system for Western Flower Thrips management in roses production," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    3. Barton, Madeleine G. & Terblanche, John S. & Sinclair, Brent J., 2019. "Incorporating temperature and precipitation extremes into process-based models of African lepidoptera changes the predicted distribution under climate change," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 394(C), pages 53-65.
    4. Sergey Masyagin & Manuel Mazzara & Giancarlo Succi & Aldo Spallone & Antonio Volpi & Aldo Spallone & Antonio Volpi, 2020. "Covid 19- How Really is the Epidemiological Curve? Epidemiological Curve Growth Rate is Less than One," Biomedical Journal of Scientific & Technical Research, Biomedical Research Network+, LLC, vol. 27(5), pages 21056-21062, May.
    5. Neta, Ayana & Levi, Yoav & Morin, Efrat & Morin, Shai, 2023. "Seasonal forecasting of pest population dynamics based on downscaled SEAS5 forecasts," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 480(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Midingoyi, Soul-kifouly & Hippolyte, Affognon & Georges, Ong'amo & Bruno, LeRu, 2015. "Economic Welfare Change Attributable to Biological Control of Lepidopteran Cereal Stemborer Pests in East and Southern Africa: Cases of Maize and Sorghum in Kenya, Mozambique and Zambia," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212461, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. d’Albis, Hippolyte & El Mekkaoui, Najat & Legendre, Bérangère, 2023. "Health accidents and wealth decline in old age," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 332(C).
    3. Ostapchuk, Igor & Gagalyuk, Taras & Curtiss, Jarmila, 2021. "Post-acquisition integration and growth of farms: the case of Ukrainian agroholdings," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 24(4), April.
    4. Solomon Asfaw & Silvio Daidone & Benjamin Davis & Josh Dewbre & Alessandro Romeo & Paul Winters & Katia Covarrubias & Habiba Djebbari, 2012. "Analytical Framework for Evaluating the Productive Impact of Cash Transfer Programmes on Household Behaviour – Methodological Guidelines for the From Protection to Production Project," Working Papers 101, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
    5. Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada & Oueslati, Walid, 2016. "Are deep and comprehensive regional trade agreements helping to reduce air pollution?," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 292, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    6. Backson Mwangi & Ibrahim Macharia & Eric Bett, 2021. "Ex-post Impact Evaluation of Improved Sorghum Varieties on Poverty Reduction in Kenya: A Counterfactual Analysis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 154(2), pages 447-467, April.
    7. Jonathan Kropko & Robert Kubinec, 2020. "Interpretation and identification of within-unit and cross-sectional variation in panel data models," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(4), pages 1-22, April.
    8. Simon Gosling & Jason Lowe & Glenn McGregor & Mark Pelling & Bruce Malamud, 2009. "Associations between elevated atmospheric temperature and human mortality: a critical review of the literature," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 92(3), pages 299-341, February.
    9. A. Lopez & E. Suckling & F. Otto & A. Lorenz & D. Rowlands & M. Allen, 2015. "Towards a typology for constrained climate model forecasts," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(1), pages 15-29, September.
    10. Tamini, Lota D., 2011. "A nonparametric analysis of the impact of agri-environmental advisory activities on best management practice adoption: A case study of Québec," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(7), pages 1363-1374, May.
    11. Jose M. Yorobe Jr. & Jauhar Ali & Valerien O. Pede & Roderick M. Rejesus & Orlee. P. Velarde & Huaiyu Wang, 2016. "Yield and income effects of rice varieties with tolerance of multiple abiotic stresses: the case of green super rice (GSR) and flooding in the Philippines," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 47(3), pages 261-271, May.
    12. Muluken Gezahegn Wordofa & Maria Sassi, 2017. "Impact of Farmers’ Training Centres on Household Income: Evidence from Propensity Score Matching in Eastern Ethiopia," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-12, December.
    13. Lajos Baráth & Imre Fertő & Štefan Bojnec, 2020. "The Effect of Investment, LFA and Agri‐environmental Subsidies on the Components of Total Factor Productivity: The Case of Slovenian Farms," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(3), pages 853-876, September.
    14. Mahoukede, Kinkingninhoun-Medagbe & Aliou, Diagne & Gauthier, Biaou, 2015. "Impact of Use of Credit in rice farming on rice Productivity and Income in Benin," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211635, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    15. Marchesano, Katia & Musella, Marco, 2020. "Does volunteer work affect life satisfaction of participants with chronic functional limitations? An empirical investigation," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    16. Ha, Tuan M. & Bac, Ho Van, 2021. "Effects of Climate-Smart Agriculture Adoption on Performance of Rice Farmers in Northeast Vietnam," Asian Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development, Asian Economic and Social Society (AESS), vol. 11(04), April.
    17. Modou Mar & Nadine Massard, 2021. "Animate the cluster or subsidize collaborative R&D? A multiple overlapping treatments approach to assess the impacts of the French cluster policy [The impact of R&D subsidies on R&D employment comp," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 30(4), pages 845-867.
    18. Timothy Garrett, 2011. "Are there basic physical constraints on future anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(3), pages 437-455, February.
    19. Mahoukede, Kinkingninhoun-Medagbe & Aliou, Diagne & Rita A., Agboh-Noameshie, 2015. "Impact of NERICA Adoption on Productivity and Income in Benin: Is There Gender Difference?," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211634, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    20. Yin, Runsheng & Zulu, Leo & Qi, Jiaguo & Freudenberger, Mark & Sommerville, Matthew, 2016. "Empirical linkages between devolved tenure systems and forest conditions: Challenges, findings, and recommendations," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 294-299.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:354:y:2017:i:c:p:88-103. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.