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A modelling framework for pest population dynamics and management: An application to the grape berry moth

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  • Gilioli, Gianni
  • Pasquali, Sara
  • Marchesini, Enrico

Abstract

Physiologically based demographic models are important tools for the development of sustainable pest management as they can realistically describe the spatio-temporal dynamics of population abundance as function of environmental forcing variables, e.g. temperature and resource availability. The physiological based model presented here is based on a stochastic demographic model for a stage-structured population that has application to a wide range of species across different taxa. The species life-history strategies are described in terms of a set of biodemographic rate functions dependent from the biological characteristics of the species and their environmental driver variables. Model application required parameter estimation of the biodemographic rate functions at two levels: assessing physiological responses at the per capita level and/or using population time series data for rate functions estimation. To explore the usefulness of the modelling framework in pest management, we consider the case study of the grape berry moth Lobesia botrana, a major pest in European vineyard. Most of the model parameters were estimated from data in the literature. An unpublished dataset of population dynamics collected in a vineyard in the Veneto region (Italy) over three years was used to estimate the mortality function. Model validation was performed with a set of independent data.

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  • Gilioli, Gianni & Pasquali, Sara & Marchesini, Enrico, 2016. "A modelling framework for pest population dynamics and management: An application to the grape berry moth," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 320(C), pages 348-357.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:320:y:2016:i:c:p:348-357
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.10.018
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    1. Uri Regev & Andrew P. Gutierrez & Gershon Feder, 1976. "Pests as a Common Property Resource: A Case Study of Alfalfa Weevil Control," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 58(2), pages 186-197.
    2. Gilioli, Gianni & Bodini, Antonella & Baumgärtner, Johann, 2013. "Metapopulation modelling and area-wide pest management strategies evaluation. An application to the Pine processionary moth," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 260(C), pages 1-10.
    3. Gilioli, Gianni & Pasquali, Sara, 2007. "Use of individual-based models for population parameters estimation," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 200(1), pages 109-118.
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    1. Pasquali, Sara & Trivellato, Barbara, 2023. "A stage structured demographic model with “no-regression” growth: The case of temperature-dependent development rate," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 629(C).
    2. Castex, V. & García de Cortázar-Atauri, I. & Calanca, P. & Beniston, M. & Moreau, J., 2020. "Assembling and testing a generic phenological model to predict Lobesia botrana voltinism for impact studies," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 420(C).
    3. Klagkou, Evridiki & Gergs, Andre & Baden, Christian U. & Lika, Konstadia, 2024. "Dynamic Energy Budget approach for modeling growth and reproduction of Neotropical stink bugs," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 493(C).
    4. Pasquali, Sara, 2021. "A stage structured demographic model with “no-regression” growth: The case of constant development rate," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 581(C).
    5. Rossini, Luca & Contarini, Mario & Severini, Maurizio & Speranza, Stefano, 2020. "Reformulation of the Distributed Delay Model to describe insect pest populations using count variables," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 436(C).
    6. Neta, Ayana & Gafni, Roni & Elias, Hilit & Bar-Shmuel, Nitsan & Shaltiel-Harpaz, Liora & Morin, Efrat & Morin, Shai, 2021. "Decision support for pest management: Using field data for optimizing temperature-dependent population dynamics models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 440(C).
    7. Aguirre-Zapata, Estefania & Alvarez, Hernan & Dagatti, Carla Vanina & di Sciascio, Fernando & Amicarelli, Adriana N., 2023. "Parametric interpretability of growth kinetics equations in a process model for the life cycle of Lobesia botrana," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 482(C).
    8. Rossini, Luca & Severini, Maurizio & Contarini, Mario & Speranza, Stefano, 2019. "A novel modelling approach to describe an insect life cycle vis-à-vis plant protection: description and application in the case study of Tuta absoluta," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 409(C), pages 1-1.
    9. Pasquali, S. & Soresina, C. & Marchesini, E., 2022. "Mortality estimate driven by population abundance field data in a stage-structured demographic model. The case of Lobesia botrana," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 464(C).
    10. Pasquali, S. & Soresina, C. & Gilioli, G., 2019. "The effects of fecundity, mortality and distribution of the initial condition in phenological models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 402(C), pages 45-58.
    11. Rossini, Luca & Bono Rosselló, Nicolás & Speranza, Stefano & Garone, Emanuele, 2021. "A general ODE-based model to describe the physiological age structure of ectotherms: Description and application to Drosophila suzukii," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 456(C).

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