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Two-way coupling versus one-way forcing of plankton and fish models to predict ecosystem changes in the Benguela

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  • Travers, M.
  • Shin, Y.-J.
  • Jennings, S.
  • Machu, E.
  • Huggett, J.A.
  • Field, J.G.
  • Cury, P.M.

Abstract

‘End-to-end’ models have been adopted in an attempt to capture more of the processes that influence the ecology of marine ecosystems and to make system wide predictions of the effects of fishing and climate change. Here, we develop an end-to-end model by coupling existing models that describe the dynamics of low (ROMS–N2P2Z2D2) and high trophic levels (OSMOSE). ROMS–N2P2Z2D2 is a biogeochemical model representing phytoplankton and zooplankton seasonal dynamics forced by hydrodynamics in the Benguela upwelling ecosystem. OSMOSE is an individual-based model representing the dynamics of several species of fish, linked through opportunistic and size-based trophic interactions. The models are coupled through a two-way size-based predation process. Plankton provides prey for fish, and the effects of predation by fish on the plankton are described by a plankton mortality term that is variable in space and time. Using the end-to-end model, we compare the effects of two-way coupling versus one-way forcing of the fish model with the plankton biomass field. The fish-induced mortality on plankton is temporally variable, in part explained by seasonal changes in fish biomass. Inclusion of two-way feedback affects the seasonal dynamics of plankton groups and usually reduces the amplitude of variation in abundance (top-down effect). Forcing and coupling lead to different predicted food web structures owing to changes in the dominant food chain which is supported by plankton (bottom-up effect). Our comparisons of one-way forcing and two-way coupling show how feedbacks may affect abundance, food web structure and food web function and emphasise the need to critically examine the consequences of different model architectures when seeking to predict the effects of fishing and climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Travers, M. & Shin, Y.-J. & Jennings, S. & Machu, E. & Huggett, J.A. & Field, J.G. & Cury, P.M., 2009. "Two-way coupling versus one-way forcing of plankton and fish models to predict ecosystem changes in the Benguela," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(21), pages 3089-3099.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:220:y:2009:i:21:p:3089-3099
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.08.016
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    1. Neil Rooney & Kevin McCann & Gabriel Gellner & John C. Moore, 2006. "Structural asymmetry and the stability of diverse food webs," Nature, Nature, vol. 442(7100), pages 265-269, July.
    2. Haimovici, M. & Velasco, G., 2000. "Length-weight relationship of marine fishes from southern Brazil," Naga, The WorldFish Center, vol. 23(1), pages 19-23.
    3. Megrey, Bernard A. & Rose, Kenneth A. & Klumb, Robert A. & Hay, Douglas E. & Werner, Francisco E. & Eslinger, David L. & Smith, S. Lan, 2007. "A bioenergetics-based population dynamics model of Pacific herring (Clupea harengus pallasi) coupled to a lower trophic level nutrient–phytoplankton–zooplankton model: Description, calibration, and se," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 144-164.
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    1. Libralato, Simone & Solidoro, Cosimo, 2009. "Bridging biogeochemical and food web models for an End-to-End representation of marine ecosystem dynamics: The Venice lagoon case study," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(21), pages 2960-2971.
    2. Hill Cruz, Mariana & Frenger, Ivy & Getzlaff, Julia & Kriest, Iris & Xue, Tianfei & Shin, Yunne-Jai, 2022. "Understanding the drivers of fish variability in an end-to-end model of the Northern Humboldt Current System," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 472(C).
    3. Fu, Caihong & Travers-Trolet, Morgane & Velez, Laure & Grüss, Arnaud & Bundy, Alida & Shannon, Lynne J. & Fulton, Elizabeth A. & Akoglu, Ekin & Houle, Jennifer E. & Coll, Marta & Verley, Philippe & He, 2018. "Risky business: The combined effects of fishing and changes in primary productivity on fish communities," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 368(C), pages 265-276.
    4. Caracappa, Joseph C. & Beet, Andrew & Gaichas, Sarah & Gamble, Robert J. & Hyde, Kimberly J.W. & Large, Scott I. & Morse, Ryan E. & Stock, Charles A. & Saba, Vincent S., 2022. "A northeast United States Atlantis marine ecosystem model with ocean reanalysis and ocean color forcing," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 471(C).
    5. Kumar, Vijay & Kumari, Beena, 2015. "Mathematical modelling of the seasonal variability of plankton and forage fish in the Gulf of Kachchh," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 313(C), pages 237-250.
    6. Oladayo Amed Idris & Prosper Opute & Israel Ropo Orimoloye & Mark Steve Maboeta, 2022. "Climate Change in Africa and Vegetation Response: A Bibliometric and Spatially Based Information Assessment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-19, April.
    7. Diaz, Frédéric & Bănaru, Daniela & Verley, Philippe & Shin, Yunne-Jai, 2019. "Implementation of an end-to-end model of the Gulf of Lions ecosystem (NW Mediterranean Sea). II. Investigating the effects of high trophic levels on nutrients and plankton dynamics and associated feed," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 405(C), pages 51-68.
    8. Grüss, Arnaud & Palomares, Maria L.D. & Poelen, Jorrit H. & Barile, Josephine R. & Aldemita, Casey D. & Ortiz, Shelumiel R. & Barrier, Nicolas & Shin, Yunne-Jai & Simons, James & Pauly, Daniel, 2019. "Building bridges between global information systems on marine organisms and ecosystem models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 398(C), pages 1-19.
    9. Xing, Lei & Zhang, Chongliang & Chen, Yong & Shin, Yunne-Jai & Verley, Philippe & Yu, Haiqing & Ren, Yiping, 2017. "An individual-based model for simulating the ecosystem dynamics of Jiaozhou Bay, China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 360(C), pages 120-131.
    10. Bănaru, Daniela & Diaz, Fréderic & Verley, Philippe & Campbell, Rose & Navarro, Jonathan & Yohia, Christophe & Oliveros-Ramos, Ricardo & Mellon-Duval, Capucine & Shin, Yunne-Jai, 2019. "Implementation of an end-to-end model of the Gulf of Lions ecosystem (NW Mediterranean Sea). I. Parameterization, calibration and evaluation," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 401(C), pages 1-19.
    11. Skartsæterhagen, Maria & Hansen, Cecilie & Fulton, Elizabeth A., 2024. "Exploring ecosystem effects of underwater noise in the nordic seas, using the NoBa-Atlantis E2E model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 492(C).
    12. Maar, Marie & Butenschön, Momme & Daewel, Ute & Eggert, Anja & Fan, Wei & Hjøllo, Solfrid S. & Hufnagl, Marc & Huret, Martin & Ji, Rubao & Lacroix, Geneviève & Peck, Myron A. & Radtke, Hagen & Sailley, 2018. "Responses of summer phytoplankton biomass to changes in top-down forcing: Insights from comparative modelling," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 376(C), pages 54-67.
    13. Travers-Trolet, Morgane & Coppin, Franck & Cresson, Pierre & Cugier, Philippe & Oliveros-Ramos, Ricardo & Verley, Philippe, 2019. "Emergence of negative trophic level-size relationships from a size-based, individual-based multispecies fish model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 410(C), pages 1-1.
    14. Duboz, Raphaël & Versmisse, David & Travers, Morgane & Ramat, Eric & Shin, Yunne-Jai, 2010. "Application of an evolutionary algorithm to the inverse parameter estimation of an individual-based model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(5), pages 840-849.
    15. Halouani, Ghassen & Ben Rais Lasram, Frida & Shin, Yunne-Jai & Velez, Laure & Verley, Philippe & Hattab, Tarek & Oliveros-Ramos, Ricardo & Diaz, Frédéric & Ménard, Frédéric & Baklouti, Melika & Guyenn, 2016. "Modelling food web structure using an end-to-end approach in the coastal ecosystem of the Gulf of Gabes (Tunisia)," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 339(C), pages 45-57.

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