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Ecosystem change in the western North Pacific associated with global warming using 3D-NEMURO

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  • Hashioka, Taketo
  • Yamanaka, Yasuhiro

Abstract

We developed a 3D ecosystem-biogeochemical model based on NEMURO (North Pacific Ecosystem Model Used for Regional Oceanography) and applied it to the western North Pacific in order to predict the effects of global warming on ecosystem dynamics and biogeochemical cycles. Using datasets of observed climatology and simulated fields according to a global warming scenario, IS92a (CO-AGCM developed by CCSR/NIES) as boundary conditions for our ecosystem model, we conducted present-day and global warming experiments and compared their results. Model results in the global warming experiment show increases in vertical stratification due to rising temperatures. As a result, the predicted nutrient and chlorophyll-a concentrations in the surface water decrease at the end of the 21st century, and the dominant phytoplankton group shifts from diatoms to other small phytoplankton. The P/B ratio slightly increases from that in the present as a result of favorable temperature conditions, although nutrient conditions become worse. The increase in the P/B ratio causes increases in the NPP and GPP, although new and export productions decrease. Increases in the regeneration rates (i.e., decrease in the e-ratio) also contribute to increases in NPP and GPP through nutrient supplies within the surface water. Changes in seasonal variations of biomass and the dominant phytoplankton group in the subarctic–subtropical transition region associated with the global warming are large in all regions. In the global warming scenario, the onset of the diatom spring bloom is predicted to take place 1.5 month earlier than in the present-day simulation due to strengthened stratification. The maximum biomass in the spring bloom is predicted to decrease drastically compared to the present due to the decreases in nutrient concentration. In contrast, the biomass maximum of the other small phytoplankton at the end of the diatom spring bloom is the same as the present, because they can adapt to the low nutrient conditions due to their small half-saturation constant. Therefore, a change in the dominant phytoplankton group appears notably at the end of spring bloom. Since the present nutrient concentrations and phytoplankton biomass from summer to winter are low compared with those in spring, these changes associated with the global warming are small. That is, it is interesting that the changes do not occur uniformly in all seasons, but occur dramatically at the end of the spring and in the fall bloom.

Suggested Citation

  • Hashioka, Taketo & Yamanaka, Yasuhiro, 2007. "Ecosystem change in the western North Pacific associated with global warming using 3D-NEMURO," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 95-104.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:202:y:2007:i:1:p:95-104
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2005.12.002
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    1. Hashioka, Taketo & Yamanaka, Yasuhiro, 2007. "Seasonal and regional variations of phytoplankton groups by top–down and bottom–up controls obtained by a 3D ecosystem model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 68-80.
    2. Megrey, Bernard A. & Rose, Kenneth A. & Klumb, Robert A. & Hay, Douglas E. & Werner, Francisco E. & Eslinger, David L. & Smith, S. Lan, 2007. "A bioenergetics-based population dynamics model of Pacific herring (Clupea harengus pallasi) coupled to a lower trophic level nutrient–phytoplankton–zooplankton model: Description, calibration, and se," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 144-164.
    3. Aita, Maki Noguchi & Yamanaka, Yasuhiro & Kishi, Michio J., 2007. "Interdecadal variation of the lower trophic ecosystem in the northern Pacific between 1948 and 2002, in a 3-D implementation of the NEMURO model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 81-94.
    4. Kishi, Michio J. & Kashiwai, Makoto & Ware, Daniel M. & Megrey, Bernard A. & Eslinger, David L. & Werner, Francisco E. & Noguchi-Aita, Maki & Azumaya, Tomonori & Fujii, Masahiko & Hashimoto, Shinji & , 2007. "NEMURO—a lower trophic level model for the North Pacific marine ecosystem," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 12-25.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sun, Ke & Zhang, Jihong & Lin, Fan & Ren, Jeffrey S. & Zhao, Yunxia & Wu, Wenguang & Liu, Yi, 2020. "Evaluating the influences of integrated culture on pelagic ecosystem by a numerical approach: A case study of Sungo Bay, China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 415(C).
    2. Werner, Francisco E. & Ito, Shin-Ichi & Megrey, Bernard A. & Kishi, Michio J., 2007. "Synthesis of the NEMURO model studies and future directions of marine ecosystem modeling," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 211-223.
    3. Yoshie, Naoki & Yamanaka, Yasuhiro & Rose, Kenneth A. & Eslinger, David L. & Ware, Daniel M. & Kishi, Michio J., 2007. "Parameter sensitivity study of the NEMURO lower trophic level marine ecosystem model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 26-37.
    4. Sailley, S.F. & Vogt, M. & Doney, S.C. & Aita, M.N. & Bopp, L. & Buitenhuis, E.T. & Hashioka, T. & Lima, I. & Le Quéré, C. & Yamanaka, Y., 2013. "Comparing food web structures and dynamics across a suite of global marine ecosystem models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 261, pages 43-57.

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