Exploring ecosystem effects of underwater noise in the nordic seas, using the NoBa-Atlantis E2E model

Underwater noise generated by human activities, such as shipping and seismic surveys, has emerged as a growing concern. Despite the mounting evidence that noise negatively impacts marine mammals, fish, and invertebrates, end-to-end ecosystem models often overlook noise as a stressor. This omission is due to the complexity of studying noise’s influence on entire populations and ecosystems, making it difficult to gauge the potential total effects accurately. In this study, we implemented potential effects of underwater noise in the Atlantis ecosystem modeling framework. Noise effects on organisms were simulated through reduced growth and consumption rates, increased mortality and movement away from noisy areas. The noise module was tested by a Morris sensitivity analysis on most of the fish, mammal and invertebrate species in the model. The species were aggregated into 12 groups perturbed with six different noise levels, with the spatial dimension taken into account by repeating the analysis under varying spatial configurations. The results revealed substantial systemic effects from increased vulnerability to noise from zooplankton, while marine mammal noise vulnerability had relatively little impact, in line with earlier Atlantis studies. Additionally, the coastal area exhibited significantly higher biomass variability, indicating a need for more research in this region where noise is expected to increase the most. These results provide an initial estimation of the potential effects of noise at the ecosystem level in the Nordic and Barents Seas. However, for improved realism of the noise module in future studies, we emphasize the need to develop response functions for each species’ sensitivity to noise. Understanding such species-specific sensitivities will be crucial in devising effective strategies to mitigate the detrimental consequences of underwater noise on marine ecosystems.