Impact of aircraft lifetime change on lifecycle CO2 emissions and costs in Japan

Airline industry CO2 emissions have increased rapidly; air transportation released approximately 2.8% of global fuel-combustion-based CO2 emissions in 2019. Focusing on Japan, this study explored the introduction of new passenger aircraft as a CO2-reduction policy. To this end, the lifetime distribution function for passenger aircraft was specified. Lifecycle CO2 emissions and the associated costs between 1965 and 2019 were then estimated. The results showed that single-aisle aircraft followed a Rayleigh distribution with a mean of 13.42, while twin-aisle aircraft followed a normal distribution with a mean of 19.82. The reduction potential of lifecycle CO2 emissions is 28.2 Mt. over 55 years by extending the lifetime +11 years of single-aisle aircraft and shortening the lifetime −8 years of twin-aisle aircraft. If the average fuel intensity of aircraft inflow improves steadily, the shortened lifetime and introduction of more fuel-efficient aircraft contribute to a decrease in lifecycle CO2 emissions. However, the cost associated with the lifecycle CO2 emission reductions is USD 94.0 billion, and airlines need to pay USD 3.4 thousand to reduce CO2 emissions by one unit. In sum, the introduction of new aircraft was shown to be cost-ineffective as a CO2-reduction policy, and airlines need to switch to less costly alternatives.