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International aviation emissions to 2025: Can emissions be stabilised without restricting demand?

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  • Macintosh, Andrew
  • Wallace, Lailey

Abstract

International aviation is growing rapidly, resulting in rising aviation greenhouse gas emissions. Concerns about the growth trajectory of the industry and emissions have led to calls for market measures such as emissions trading and carbon levies to be introduced to restrict demand and prompt innovation. This paper provides an overview of the science on aviation's contribution to climate change, analyses key trends in the industry since 1990, projects international civil aviation emissions to 2025 and analyses the emission intensity improvements that are necessary to offset rising international demand. The findings suggest international aviation carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will increase by more than 110 per cent between 2005 and 2025 (from 416Â Mt to between 876 and 1013Â Mt) and that it is unlikely emissions could be stabilised at levels consistent with risk averse climate targets without restricting demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Macintosh, Andrew & Wallace, Lailey, 2009. "International aviation emissions to 2025: Can emissions be stabilised without restricting demand?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 264-273, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:37:y:2009:i:1:p:264-273
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Vedantham, Anu & Oppenheimer, Michael, 1998. "Long-term scenarios for aviation: Demand and emissions of CO2 and NOx," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 625-641, July.
    2. Olsthoorn, Xander, 2001. "Carbon dioxide emissions from international aviation: 1950–2050," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 87-93.
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