IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v56y2016icp79-93.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

From pro-natalist rhetoric to population policies in Turkey? An OLG general equilibrium analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Georges, Patrick
  • Seçkin, Aylin

Abstract

We build an overlapping generation (OLG) general equilibrium model of Turkey with survival rates and endogenous labour supply to simulate the economic, fiscal, welfare, and intergenerational redistribution impacts of the medium and high fertility demographic scenarios projected by the United Nations. We assume that the high fertility variant is a realistic demographic proxy for pro-natalist policies in Turkey. Our results show that on a purely economic basis, a higher fertility scenario in Turkey appears open to criticisms as it cannot offset the social security pressures of ageing, and it also involves intergenerational welfare redistributions so that current young adults are unlikely to endorse natalist rhetoric and policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Georges, Patrick & Seçkin, Aylin, 2016. "From pro-natalist rhetoric to population policies in Turkey? An OLG general equilibrium analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 79-93.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:56:y:2016:i:c:p:79-93
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2016.03.014
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999316300657
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.03.014?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Georges, Patrick & Lisenkova, Katerina & Mérette, Marcel, 2013. "Can the ageing North benefit from expanding trade with the South?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 990-998.
    2. Attar, M. Aykut, 2013. "Growth and Demography in Turkey: Economic History vs. Pro-Natalist Rhetoric," MPRA Paper 47275, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Gary S. Becker & H. Gregg Lewis, 1974. "Interaction between Quantity and Quality of Children," NBER Chapters, in: Economics of the Family: Marriage, Children, and Human Capital, pages 81-90, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Zheng Song & Kjetil Storesletten & Yikai Wang & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2015. "Sharing High Growth across Generations: Pensions and Demographic Transition in China," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 1-39, April.
    5. Axel Börsch‐Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2006. "Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi‐Country Simulation Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 625-658, November.
    6. Murat Üngör, 2014. "Average effective tax rates on consumption for Turkey: New data and a comparative analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(1), pages 567-580.
    7. Ronald Lee & A. Mason & E. Amporfu & C.-B. An & L. R. Bixby & J. Bravo & M. Bucheli & Q. Chen & P. Comelatto & D. Coy & Hippolyte d'Albis & G. Donehower & L. Dramani & A. Furnkranz-Prskawetz & R. I. G, 2014. "Is low fertility really a problem? Population aging, dependency, and consumption," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-01075298, HAL.
    8. Altug, Sumru & Filiztekin, Alpay & Pamuk, Şevket, 2008. "Sources of long-term economic growth for Turkey, 1880–2005," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 393-430, December.
    9. Menahem E. Yaari, 1965. "Uncertain Lifetime, Life Insurance, and the Theory of the Consumer," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 32(2), pages 137-150.
    10. Kenc, Turalay & Sayan, Serdar, 2001. "Demographic shock transmission from large to small countries: An overlapping generations CGE analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 677-702, August.
    11. Kolasa, Aleksandra & Rubaszek, Michał, 2016. "The effect of ageing on the European economies in a life-cycle model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 50-57.
    12. Shinichi Nishiyama, 2013. "Fiscal Policy Effects in a Heterogeneous-Agent Overlapping-Generations Economy With an Aging Population: Working Paper 2013-07," Working Papers 44941, Congressional Budget Office.
    13. Voyvoda, Ebru & Yeldan, Erinc, 2005. "Managing Turkish debt: An OLG investigation of the IMF's fiscal programming model for Turkey," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 743-765, September.
    14. Mustafa Ismihan & Kivilcim Metin-Ozcan, 2009. "Productivity and Growth in an Unstable Emerging Market Economy: The Case of Turkey, 1960-2004," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(5), pages 4-18, September.
    15. R. Anton Braun & Douglas H. Joines, 2014. "The Implications of a graying japan for government policy," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2014-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    16. Kitao, Sagiri, 2015. "Fiscal cost of demographic transition in Japan," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 37-58.
    17. Dolores Ferrero Martínez & Amaia Iza, 2004. "Skill premium effects on fertility and female labor force supply," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 17(1), pages 1-16, February.
    18. Fehr, Hans & Kallweit, Manuel & Kindermann, Fabian, 2017. "Families and social security," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 30-56.
    19. José María Da Rocha & Luisa Fuster, 2006. "Why Are Fertility Rates And Female Employment Ratios Positively Correlated Across O.E.C.D. Countries?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1187-1222, November.
    20. Jacob Mincer, 1958. "Investment in Human Capital and Personal Income Distribution," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(4), pages 281-281.
    21. Fehr, Hans & Jokisch, Sabine & Kallweit, Manuel & Kindermann, Fabian & Kotlikoff, Laurence J., 2013. "Generational Policy and Aging in Closed and Open Dynamic General Equilibrium Models," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1719-1800, Elsevier.
    22. Kudrna, George & Tran, Chung & Woodland, Alan, 2015. "The dynamic fiscal effects of demographic shift: The case of Australia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 105-122.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Magdalena Smyk & Joanna Tyrowicz & Lucas van der Velde, 2021. "A Cautionary Note on the Reliability of the Online Survey Data: The Case of Wage Indicator," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 50(1), pages 429-464, February.
    2. Krzysztof Makarski & Joanna Tyrowicz & Magda Malec, 2018. "Evaluating welfare and economic effects of raised fertility," GRAPE Working Papers 25, GRAPE Group for Research in Applied Economics.
    3. Marie Claude Kamar & Riccardo Magnani, 2022. "Population ageing and labor market frictions. An OLG model applied to Lebanon," Working Papers 3, SITES.
    4. Domonkos, Štefan & Domonkos, Tomáš & Jánošová, Miroslava, 2024. "The impact of ageing on economic dependency in Slovakia: An application of the Slovak national transfer accounts," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    5. Krzysztof Makarski & Joanna Tyrowicz & Magda Malec, 2019. "Fiscal and Welfare Effects of Raised Fertility in Poland: Overlapping Generations Model Estimates," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 45(4), pages 795-818, December.
    6. Eren, Okan & Genç İleri, Şerife, 2022. "Life cycle analysis of savings accounts with matching contributions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    7. Judit Sági & Csaba Lentner, 2018. "Certain Aspects of Family Policy Incentives for Childbearing—A Hungarian Study with an International Outlook," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-16, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kudrna, George & Tran, Chung & Woodland, Alan, 2019. "Facing Demographic Challenges: Pension Cuts Or Tax Hikes?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(2), pages 625-673, March.
    2. Katerina Lisenkova, 2016. "An Overlapping Generations Computable General Equilibrium (OLG-CGE) Model with Age-variable Rate of Time Preference," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 458, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    3. Eren, Okan & Genç İleri, Şerife, 2022. "Life cycle analysis of savings accounts with matching contributions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    4. Attanasio, O. & Bonfatti, A. & Kitao, S. & Weber, G., 2016. "Global Demographic Trends," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 179-235, Elsevier.
    5. Woodland, A., 2016. "Taxation, Pensions, and Demographic Change," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 713-780, Elsevier.
    6. M. Aykut Attar, 2018. "Economic Development in Turkey and South Korea: A Comparative Analysis," Bogazici Journal, Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, Bogazici University, Department of Economics, vol. 32(1), pages 1-28.
    7. George Kudrna & John Piggott & Phitawat Poonpolkul, 2022. "Extending pension policy in emerging Asia: An overlapping-generations model analysis for Indonesia," CAMA Working Papers 2022-14, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    8. Lee, R., 2016. "Macroeconomics, Aging, and Growth," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 59-118, Elsevier.
    9. Lisenkova, Katerina & Mérette, Marcel & Wright, Robert, 2013. "Population ageing and the labour market: Modelling size and age-specific effects," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 981-989.
    10. Kudrna, George & Tran, Chung & Woodland, Alan, 2015. "The dynamic fiscal effects of demographic shift: The case of Australia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 105-122.
    11. Axel Börsch‐Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2006. "Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi‐Country Simulation Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 625-658, November.
    12. Üngör, Murat, 2014. "Some thought experiments on the changes in labor supply in Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 265-272.
    13. Leandro Prados de la Escosura & Joan R. Rosés, 2021. "Accounting For Growth: Spain, 1850–2019," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 804-832, July.
    14. Ahmed, S. Amer & Vargas Da Cruz,Marcio Jose & Quillin,Bryce Ramsey & Schellekens,Philip, 2016. "Demographic change and development : a global typology," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7893, The World Bank.
    15. Attar, M. Aykut, 2013. "Growth and Demography in Turkey: Economic History vs. Pro-Natalist Rhetoric," MPRA Paper 47275, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Finlay, Jocelyn E., 2021. "Women’s reproductive health and economic activity: A narrative review," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    17. Khanam, Rasheda & Nghiem, Hong Son & Connelly, Luke B., 2009. "Child health and the income gradient: Evidence from Australia," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 805-817, July.
    18. Muhammad Qahraman Kakar, 2021. "Ethnic Disparities, Women Education and Empowerment in South Asia," Erudite Ph.D Dissertations, Erudite, number ph21-01 edited by Manon Domingues Dos Santos, September.
    19. Mateo Zokalj, 2016. "The impact of population aging on public finance in the European Union," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 40(4), pages 383-412.
    20. Gannon, Frédéric & Le Garrec, Gilles & Touzé, Vincent, 2020. "The South's demographic transition and international capital flows in a financially integrated world economy," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 86(1), pages 1-45, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demographic transition; Pro-natalist policies; Social security reforms; Overlapping-generation general equilibrium modelling; Turkey's economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F52 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - National Security; Economic Nationalism
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:56:y:2016:i:c:p:79-93. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.