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Population aging, pensions, informality and labor market frictions in Lebanon. Reforms and policy choices

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  • Kamar, Marie-Claude
  • Magnani, Riccardo

Abstract

We evaluate the effects of population aging on the macroeconomic evolution of the Lebanese economy and the financial sustainability of its major pension schemes. We use an OLG model with labor market frictions as in de la Croix et al. (2013). Individuals are differentiated by their origin, age, gender, and education and choose the sector of activity, which implies that the size of the informal sector is endogenous. We assess the long-run implications of population aging and show that the public sector pension scheme is unsustainable. In contrast, the private sector scheme is insufficient to ensure decent living standards for the elderly. Finally, we evaluate the effects of two pension reforms. We first propose a mix of measures that guarantee the sustainability of the public sector scheme. Then, we evaluate the impact of the pension reform introduced in December 2023 and of an alternative reform aiming at increasing the size of the private sector scheme to improve the living standards for the elderly.

Suggested Citation

  • Kamar, Marie-Claude & Magnani, Riccardo, 2024. "Population aging, pensions, informality and labor market frictions in Lebanon. Reforms and policy choices," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:inteco:v:179:y:2024:i:c:s2110701724000544
    DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100531
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pensions; Population aging; OLG models; Labor market frictions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

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