IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/pseptp/hal-01075298.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Is low fertility really a problem? Population aging, dependency, and consumption

Author

Listed:
  • Ronald Lee

    (Department of Demography, Department of Economics)

  • A. Mason

    (Department of Economics - UHM - University of Hawai‘i [Mānoa], East-West Center)

  • E. Amporfu
  • C.-B. An
  • L. R. Bixby
  • J. Bravo

    (Faculty of Medicine - UCHILE - Universidad de Chile = University of Chile [Santiago])

  • M. Bucheli
  • Q. Chen

    (Institute for Electronic Design Automation - Institute for Electronic Design Automation, Institute for Nanoelectronics - Institute for Nanoelectronics)

  • P. Comelatto
  • D. Coy
  • Hippolyte d'Albis

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • G. Donehower
  • L. Dramani
  • A. Furnkranz-Prskawetz
  • R. I. Gal
  • M. Holz
  • N. T. L. Huong

    (Department of Paediatric Nephrology - Paediatric National Hospital, Hanoï Medical University)

  • F. Kluge

    (ICS - Institute of Computer Science - University of Augsburg - UNIA - Universität Augsburg [Deutschland] = University of Augsburg [Germany] = Université d'Augsburg [Allemagne])

  • L. Ladusingh
  • S.-H. Lee
  • T. Lindh

    (Institute for Futures Studies - Institute for Futures Studies)

  • L. Ling
  • G. T. Long

    (Department of Chemistry & Biochemistry, Missouri - University of Missouri [St. Louis] - University of Missouri System)

  • R. Matsukura
  • D. Mccarthy

    (Monash University [Malaysia])

  • I. Mejia-Guevara
  • T. Mergo
  • T. Miller
  • G. Mwabu
  • M. R. Narayana
  • V. Nor
  • G. M. Norte
  • N. Ogawa

    (IFREE - Institute for Research on Earth Evolution [Yokosuka] - JAMSTEC - Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology)

  • O. A. Olaniyan
  • J. Olivera
  • M. Oosthuizen
  • M. Phananiramai
  • B. L. Queiroz
  • R. H. Racelis
  • E. Renteria
  • J. M. Rice

    (WUSTL - Washington University in Saint Louis)

  • J. Sambt
  • A. Seckin
  • J. Sefton
  • A. Soyibo
  • J. A. Tovar
  • A.-C. Tung
  • C. M. Turra
  • B. P. Urdinola
  • R. Vaittinen
  • R. Vanne
  • M. Zannella
  • Q. Zhang

Abstract

Longer lives and fertility far below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman are leading to rapid population aging in many countries. Many observers are concerned that aging will adversely affect public finances and standards of living. Analysis of newly available National Transfer Accounts data for 40 countries shows that fertility well above replacement would typically be most beneficial for government budgets. However, fertility near replacement would be most beneficial for standards of living when the analysis includes the effects of age structure on families as well as governments. And fertility below replacement would maximize per capita consumption when the cost of providing capital for a growing labor force is taken into account. Although low fertility will indeed challenge government programs and very low fertility undermines living standards, we find that moderately low fertility and population decline favor the broader material standard of living.

Suggested Citation

  • Ronald Lee & A. Mason & E. Amporfu & C.-B. An & L. R. Bixby & J. Bravo & M. Bucheli & Q. Chen & P. Comelatto & D. Coy & Hippolyte d'Albis & G. Donehower & L. Dramani & A. Furnkranz-Prskawetz & R. I. G, 2014. "Is low fertility really a problem? Population aging, dependency, and consumption," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-01075298, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:pseptp:hal-01075298
    DOI: 10.1126/science.1250542
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:pseptp:hal-01075298. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Caroline Bauer (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.