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Fiscal Policy Effects in a Heterogeneous-Agent Overlapping-Generations Economy With an Aging Population: Working Paper 2013-07

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  • Shinichi Nishiyama

Abstract

Among the models that CBO uses to analyze the economic effects of changes in federal fiscal policy is a life-cycle growth model with overlapping generations of heterogeneous households. In this paper, we extend a similar dynamic model by incorporating a population that ages in a manner consistent with projections for the United States. Under that extension, gross domestic product per capita is projected to be about 7 percent lower in 2040, and more than 11 percent lower in the long run, if the government cuts transfer rates and increases income taxes to finance the

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  • Shinichi Nishiyama, 2013. "Fiscal Policy Effects in a Heterogeneous-Agent Overlapping-Generations Economy With an Aging Population: Working Paper 2013-07," Working Papers 44941, Congressional Budget Office.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbo:wpaper:44941
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shinichi Nishiyama, 2003. "Analyzing Tax Policy Changes Using a Stochastic OLG Model with Heterogeneous Households: Technical Paper 2003-12," Working Papers 15112, Congressional Budget Office.
    2. Congressional Budget Office, 2013. "The Distribution of Federal Spending and Taxes in 2006," Reports 44698, Congressional Budget Office.
    3. Shinichi Nishiyama, 2019. "The joint labor supply decision of married couples and the U.S. Social Security pension system," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 31, pages 277-304, January.
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    8. Juan Carlos Conesa & Sagiri Kitao & Dirk Krueger, 2009. "Taxing Capital? Not a Bad Idea after All!," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(1), pages 25-48, March.
    9. Congressional Budget Office, 2012. "The 2012 Long-Term Budget Outlook," Reports 43288, Congressional Budget Office.
    10. Nishiyama, Shinichi, 2011. "The budgetary and welfare effects of tax-deferred retirement saving accounts," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(11), pages 1561-1578.
    11. Shinichi Nishiyama, 2002. "Bequests, Inter Vivos Transfers, and Wealth Distribution," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(4), pages 892-931, October.
    12. Congressional Budget Office, 2013. "Updated Budget Projections: Fiscal Years 2013 to 2023," Reports 44172, Congressional Budget Office.
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    15. Congressional Budget Office, 2013. "The Distribution of Federal Spending and Taxes in 2006," Reports 44698, Congressional Budget Office.
    16. Congressional Budget Office, 2013. "The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2013 to 2023," Reports 43907, Congressional Budget Office.
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    24. Shinichi Nishiyama & Kent Smetters, 2005. "Consumption Taxes and Economic Efficiency with Idiosyncratic Wage Shocks," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(5), pages 1088-1115, October.
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    33. Congressional Budget Office, 2012. "An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2012 to 2022," Reports 43539, Congressional Budget Office.
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    36. Shinichi Nishiyama, 2004. "Analyzing an Aging Population--A Dynamic General Equilibrium Approach: Technical Paper 2004-03," Working Papers 15191, Congressional Budget Office.
    37. Congressional Budget Office, 2012. "The 2012 Long-Term Budget Outlook," Reports 43288, Congressional Budget Office.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kudrna, George & Tran, Chung & Woodland, Alan, 2019. "Facing Demographic Challenges: Pension Cuts Or Tax Hikes?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(2), pages 625-673, March.
    2. Jonathan Huntley, 2014. "The Long-Run Effects of Federal Budget Deficits on National Saving and Private Domestic Investment: Working Paper 2014-02," Working Papers 45140, Congressional Budget Office.
    3. Felix Reichling & Shinichi Nishiyama, 2015. "The Costs to Different Generations of Policies That Close the Fiscal Gap: Working Paper 2015-10," Working Papers 51097, Congressional Budget Office.
    4. Eren, Okan & Genç İleri, Şerife, 2022. "Life cycle analysis of savings accounts with matching contributions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    5. Georges, Patrick & Seçkin, Aylin, 2016. "From pro-natalist rhetoric to population policies in Turkey? An OLG general equilibrium analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 79-93.
    6. Kudrna, George & Tran, Chung & Woodland, Alan, 2015. "The dynamic fiscal effects of demographic shift: The case of Australia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 105-122.

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