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The impact of population aging on public finance in the European Union

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  • Mateo Zokalj

    (University of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics and Business, Zagreb, Croatia)

Abstract

Population aging is a process that shapes the economic environment in most of the developed economies. Thus, understanding the dynamics between public finance and the demographic variables enables policy-makers to adapt and to ameliorate their medium-term budgetary frameworks. The aim of this paper is to examine the fiscal implications of the demographic shift using panel data on 25 EU countries in the period from 1995 until 2014. In order to qualify the findings of previous literature, this paper considers the demographic variables as endogenous and applies the system GMM estimator to obtain the elasticity of several public finance categories with respect to population aging. The results indicate significant and positive impacts of the elderly share on expenditure for pensions and social protection. The higher positive impact on overall public expenditure compared with total government revenue confirms the negative effect of population aging on budget balance. An increase in the young population has a significant impact only on health expenditure.

Suggested Citation

  • Mateo Zokalj, 2016. "The impact of population aging on public finance in the European Union," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 40(4), pages 383-412.
    • Handle: RePEc:ipf:finteo:v:40:y:2016:i:4:p:383-412
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Mirela Cristea & Gratiela Georgiana Noja & Petru Stefea & Adrian Lucian Sala, 2020. "The Impact of Population Aging and Public Health Support on EU Labor Markets," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(4), pages 1-27, February.
    2. Maria Teresa Medeiros Garcia & André Fernando Rodrigues Rocha da Silva, 2023. "Pension expenditure determinants: the case of Portugal," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 47(2), pages 177-203.
    3. Katarzyna Maj-Waśniowska & Tomasz Jedynak, 2020. "The Issues and Challenges of Local Government Units in the Era of Population Ageing," Administrative Sciences, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-23, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    population aging; demographic transition; public finance; system GMM;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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