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Threshold, smooth transition and mean reversion in inflation: New evidence from European countries

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  • Chen, Shyh-Wei
  • Hsu, Chi-Sheng

Abstract

Knowing the absence or presence of a unit root in inflation is helpful not only in distinguishing between different economic hypotheses but is also important to monetary authorities in implementing the policies of disinflation. Using data for fourteen European countries, this study investigates the issue of nonstationarity in inflation by considering the possibility of nonlinearity. In particular, we consider the properties of a threshold, smooth transition and structural break in testing for a unit root in the inflation rates. By and large, the results support the view that the inflation rates of the European countries are characterized by a unit root process based on the conventional linear unit root tests. However, the results of the nonlinear unit root tests show that the inflation rates are characterized by nonlinear mean reversion after considering the nonlinear properties of the threshold, smooth transition and structural break. The mean reversion in inflation favors the hypothesis of, for example, the natural rate of inflation and the sticky-price model and implies that shocks only have transitory effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Shyh-Wei & Hsu, Chi-Sheng, 2016. "Threshold, smooth transition and mean reversion in inflation: New evidence from European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 23-36.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:53:y:2016:i:c:p:23-36
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2015.11.006
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Unit root; Smooth transition; Threshold;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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