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Asymmetric behavior of inflation differentials in the euro area: Evidence from a threshold unit root test

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  • Giannellis, Nikolaos

Abstract

This paper tests the existence of persistent inflation rate differentials in the euro area by employing linear as well nonlinear unit root tests. Besides linear unit root tests, a two-regime threshold unit root test examines the conjecture that inflation rate differentials follow a nonlinear two-regime process towards a threshold, switching from the persistent regime to the transitory one and vice versa. The results imply that threshold nonlinearity is confirmed in 10 out of the 16 cases. However, we have found unit root regime-switching behavior only in six out of the 16 cases under investigation. This finding implies that these inflation rate differentials were persistent when they were low (regime 1), but transitory when they were high (regime 2). This asymmetric behavior can possibly be explained by the different degree of pressure exercised on governments, which is accompanied with different inflation rate differentials. On the contrary, despite the evidence of nonlinearity, the majority of the inflation rate differentials are found to be monotonically persistent. Our results have strong implications for policy makers. In particular, the documented persistency in the inflation rate differentials might have long-run costs in terms of price and macroeconomic stability.

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  • Giannellis, Nikolaos, 2013. "Asymmetric behavior of inflation differentials in the euro area: Evidence from a threshold unit root test," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 133-144.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reecon:v:67:y:2013:i:2:p:133-144
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2013.03.001
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    3. Maurer, Rainer, 2022. "Price levels in the European Monetary Union: Even tradables follow independent random walks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    4. Aycan HEPSAG, 2017. "Inflation convergence among the next eleven economies: Evidence from asymmetric nonlinear unit root test," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(4(613), W), pages 43-52, Winter.
    5. Brož, Václav & Kočenda, Evžen, 2018. "Dynamics and factors of inflation convergence in the European union," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 93-111.
    6. Shyh-Wei Chen & Chi-Sheng Hsu & Cyun-Jhen Pen, 2016. "Are Inflation Rates Mean-reverting Processes? Evidence from Six Asian Countries," Journal of Economics and Management, College of Business, Feng Chia University, Taiwan, vol. 12(1), pages 119-155, February.
    7. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Hsu, Chi-Sheng, 2016. "Threshold, smooth transition and mean reversion in inflation: New evidence from European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 23-36.

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