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Wages and prices in Europe: A test of the German leadership thesis

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  • Michael Artis
  • Dilip Nachane

Abstract

The paper presents various tests of the hypothesis that, through the mechanism of the European Monetary System. Germany exercised a counter-inflationary leadership role in the 1980s. Evidence is provided that expectations of German inflation may be thought of as having impacted more strongly on expectations of inflation in other EMS countries in the EMS period than on non-EMS countries (the UK) and in earlier periods. Co-integration tests show inflation rates in partner EMS member countries to be cointegrated with inflation in Germany in the EMS period, but the same is true for the UK suggesting that the EMS arrangements could not have been responsible. Co-integration tests also reveal that bilateral exchange rates have not been particularly stable in this period and do not follow P.
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  • Michael Artis & Dilip Nachane, 1990. "Wages and prices in Europe: A test of the German leadership thesis," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 126(1), pages 59-77, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:weltar:v:126:y:1990:i:1:p:59-77
    DOI: 10.1007/BF02706312
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    1. Baillie, Richard T. & Selover, David D., 1987. "Cointegration and models of exchange rate determination," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 43-51.
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    3. Ormerod, Paul, 1982. "Rational and Non-Rational Expectations of Inflation in Wage Equations for the United Kingdom," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 49(196), pages 375-387, November.
    4. Artis, Michael J & Taylor, Mark P, 1988. "Exchange Rates and the EMS: Assessing the Track Record," CEPR Discussion Papers 250, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Michele Fratianni, 1988. "The European Monetary System: How Well Has It Worked?," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 8(2), pages 477-506, Fall.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bessec, Marie, 2003. "Mean-reversion vs. adjustment to PPP: the two regimes of exchange rate dynamics under the EMS, 1979-1998," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 141-164, January.
    2. Robert Anderton, 1997. "Did the underlying behaviour of inflation change in the 1980s? A study of 17 countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 133(1), pages 22-38, March.
    3. Clemens Kool & Alex Lammertsma, 2005. "Inflation Persistence under Semi-Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes: The European Evidence 1974–1998," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 51-76, January.
    4. Patrick Artus, 1992. "Passage à l'union économique et monétaire en Europe : effets sur la croissance et les politiques budgétaires," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 106(5), pages 123-137.
    5. Robert Anderton & Ray Barrell, 1995. "The ERM and structural change in European labour markets: A study of 10 countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 131(1), pages 47-66, March.
    6. Gilles Dufrenot & Laurent Mathieu & Valerie Mignon & Anne Peguin-Feissolle, 2006. "Persistent misalignments of the European exchange rates: some evidence from non-linear cointegration," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 203-229.
    7. William Bryant & Roselyne Joyeux, 2010. "Interest linkages between the US, UK and German interest rates: should the UK join the European Monetary Union?," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(6), pages 633-647.
    8. Lee, Hsiu-Yun & Wu, Jyh-Lin, 2001. "Mean Reversion of Inflation Rates: Evidence from 13 OECD Countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 477-487, July.
    9. Demertzis, Maria & Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Schermer, Nicolien, 2009. "Europeanization or globalization? Transnational wage bargaining and the distribution of activity in European labor markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 177-192, August.
    10. Guglielmo Caporale & Nikitas Pittis, 1995. "Inflation convergence in the EMS: Some additional evidence. A reply," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 131(3), pages 587-593, September.
    11. Ma, Yue & Kanas, Angelos, 2000. "Testing for a nonlinear relationship among fundamentals and exchange rates in the ERM," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 135-152, February.
    12. Romero-Ávila, Diego & Usabiaga, Carlos, 2009. "The hypothesis of a unit root in OECD inflation revisited," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 153-161.
    13. S. Zhou, 2003. "Evidence on the stationarity of ERM exchange rates," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 231-233.
    14. Guglielmo Caporale & Nikitas Pittis, 1993. "Common stochastic trends and inflation convergence in the EMS," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 129(2), pages 207-215, June.
    15. Michael Artis & Wenda Zhang, 1998. "The linkage of interest rates within the EMS," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 134(1), pages 117-132, March.
    16. J.M. Groeneveld & K.G. Koedijk & C.J.M. Kool, 1997. "Money, prices and the transition to EMU," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 50(203), pages 481-504.
    17. Yin-Wong Cheung & Hung-Gay Fung & Kon S. Lai & Wai-Chung Lo, 1995. "Purchasing power parity under the European Monetary System," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 179-189, April.
    18. Laurence Boone, 1997. "Symmetry and Asymmetry of Supply and Demand Shocks in the European Union," Working Papers 1997-03, CEPII research center.
    19. Marie Bessec, 2000. "Mean-Reversion versus PPP Adjustment: The Two Regimes of Exchange Rate Dynamics Under the EMS, 1979-1998," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1305, Econometric Society.
    20. Nicholas Sarantis & Chris Stewart, 2000. "The ERM Effect, Conflict and Inflation in the European Union," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 25-43.
    21. Lucio Sarno, 2000. "Systematic sampling and real exchange rates," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 136(1), pages 24-57, March.
    22. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Hsu, Chi-Sheng, 2016. "Threshold, smooth transition and mean reversion in inflation: New evidence from European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 23-36.

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