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Inflation Targeting and the Stationarity of Inflation: New Results from an ESTAR Unit Root Test

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  • Andros Gregoriou
  • Alexandros Kontonikas

Abstract

In this paper we examine the time series properties of inflation in seven countries that have adopted inflation targeting. Unlike previous studies we utilize a non-linear mean reverting adjustment mechanism for inflation and we discover that although deviations of inflation from the target can exhibit a region of non-stationary behavior, overall they are stationary indicating successful targeting implementation.

Suggested Citation

  • Andros Gregoriou & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2005. "Inflation Targeting and the Stationarity of Inflation: New Results from an ESTAR Unit Root Test," Working Papers 2005_10, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    • Handle: RePEc:gla:glaewp:2005_10
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    Cited by:

    1. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Estefanía Mourelle, 2009. "Inflation persistence and asymmetries: evidence for African countries," NBS Discussion Papers in Economics 2009/2, Economics, Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University.
    2. Bertram, Philip & Sibbertsen, Philipp & Stahl, Gerhard, 2011. "About the Impact of Model Risk on Capital Reserves: A Quantitative Analysis," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-469, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    3. Ventosa-Santaularària, Daniel & Gómez, Manuel, 2006. "Inflation and Breaks: the validity of the Dickey-Fuller test," MPRA Paper 58773, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Gregoriou, Andros & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2009. "Modeling the behaviour of inflation deviations from the target," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 90-95, January.
    5. Joseph P. Byrne & Alexandros Kontonikas & Alberto Montagnoli, 2010. "The Time‐Series Properties Of Uk Inflation: Evidence From Aggregate And Disaggregate Data," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 57(1), pages 33-47, February.
    6. Milas, Costas & Dergiades, Theologos & Panagiotidis, Theodore & Papapanagiotou, Georgios, 2024. "An assessment of inflation targeting," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    7. Alberto Montagnoli & Andros Gregoriou & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2007. "Euro Area Inflation Differentials: Unit Roots, Structural Breaks and Non-Linear Adjustment," Working Papers 2007_13, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    8. Emmanuel Anoruo & Vasudeva N.R. Murthy, 2014. "Testing Nonlinear Inflation Convergence for the Central African Economic and Monetary Community," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(1), pages 1-7.
    9. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Andrea Mervar & James E. Payne, 2017. "The stationarity of inflation in Croatia: anti-inflation stabilization program and the change in persistence," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 45-58, February.
    10. Nobay, A. Robert & Paya, Ivan & Peel, David A., 2007. "Inflation dynamics in the US - a nonlinear perspective," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24499, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Estefania Mourelle & Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis Alberiko Gil‐alana, 2011. "Is There An Asymmetric Behaviour In African Inflation? A Non‐Linear Approach," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 79(1), pages 68-90, March.
    12. Gregoriou, Andros & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2010. "The long-run relationship between stock prices and goods prices: New evidence from panel cointegration," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 166-176, April.
    13. Habibullah, M.S. & Dayang-Afizzah, A.M. & Liew, Venus Khim-Sen & Lim, Kian-Ping, 2008. "Testing nonlinear convergence in Malaysia,1965-2003," MPRA Paper 12110, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Giannellis, Nikolaos, 2013. "Asymmetric behavior of inflation differentials in the euro area: Evidence from a threshold unit root test," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 133-144.
    15. Inês da Cunha Cabral & João Nicolau, 2022. "Inflation in the G7 and the expected time to reach the reference rate: A nonparametric approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 1608-1620, April.
    16. Shyh-Wei Chen & Chi-Sheng Hsu & Cyun-Jhen Pen, 2016. "Are Inflation Rates Mean-reverting Processes? Evidence from Six Asian Countries," Journal of Economics and Management, College of Business, Feng Chia University, Taiwan, vol. 12(1), pages 119-155, February.
    17. Muhammad Imtiaz Subhani & Syed Akif Hasan & Amber Osman & Junaid Minhas, 2013. "Are the inflations of world co-integrated?," South Asian Journal of Management Sciences (SAJMS), Iqra University, Iqra University, vol. 7(1), pages 9-18, Spring.
    18. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Hsu, Chi-Sheng, 2016. "Threshold, smooth transition and mean reversion in inflation: New evidence from European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 23-36.
    19. Ventosa-Santaulária, Daniel & Gómez-Zaldívar, Manuel, 2009. "Broken mean stationarity and the validity of the Dickey-Fuller test: the case of controlled inflation," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 29(1), May.
    20. Habibullah, Muzafar & Affizzah Awang Marikan, Dayang & senliew, venus & Lim, kian, 2013. "Testing Nonlinear Convergence in Malaysia," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 47(1), pages 155-162.
    21. Kurmaş Akdoğan, 2015. "Asymmetric Behaviour of Inflation around the Target in Inflation-Targeting Countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 62(5), pages 486-504, November.
    22. Canarella, Giorgio & Miller, Stephen M., 2017. "Inflation targeting and inflation persistence: New evidence from fractional integration and cointegration," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 45-62.
    23. Bernard Moeketsi Hlalele, 2022. "A Comparative Analysis Of Holts-Winters’ And Neural Network Prediction Models On Annual Bloemfontein’S Precipitation: Risk Aversion," Big Data In Agriculture (BDA), Zibeline International Publishing, vol. 4(1), pages 17-21, April.

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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