IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v44y2015icp86-96.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Robust analysis for downside risk in portfolio management for a volatile stock market

Author

Listed:
  • Ayub, Usman
  • Shah, Syed Zulfiqar Ali
  • Abbas, Qaisar

Abstract

Variance and downside risk are different proxies of risk in portfolio management. This study tests mean–variance and downside risk frameworks in relation to portfolio management. The sample is a highly volatile market; Karachi Stock Exchange, Pakistan. Factors affecting portfolio optimization like appropriate portfolio size, portfolio sorting procedure, butterfly effect on the choice of appropriate algorithms and endogeneity problem are discussed and solutions to them are incorporated to make the study robust. Results show that downside risk framework performs better than Markowitz mean–variance framework. Moreover, this difference is significant when the asset returns are more skewed. Results suggest the use of downside risk in place of variance as a measure of risk for investment decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Ayub, Usman & Shah, Syed Zulfiqar Ali & Abbas, Qaisar, 2015. "Robust analysis for downside risk in portfolio management for a volatile stock market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 86-96.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:44:y:2015:i:c:p:86-96
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2014.10.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999314003563
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2014.10.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Estrada, Javier, 2002. "Systematic risk in emerging markets: the," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 365-379, December.
    2. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    3. Lakonishok, Josef & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1994. "Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1541-1578, December.
    4. Zhou, Guofu, 1993. "Asset-Pricing Tests under Alternative Distributions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1927-1942, December.
    5. Michael C. Jensen, 1968. "The Performance Of Mutual Funds In The Period 1945–1964," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(2), pages 389-416, May.
    6. John Y. Campbell & Martin Lettau & Burton G. Malkiel & Yexiao Xu, 2001. "Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 1-43, February.
    7. Fama, Eugene F., 1998. "Market efficiency, long-term returns, and behavioral finance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 283-306, September.
    8. Fishburn, Peter C, 1977. "Mean-Risk Analysis with Risk Associated with Below-Target Returns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 116-126, March.
    9. John L. Evans & Stephen H. Archer, 1968. "Diversification And The Reduction Of Dispersion: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(5), pages 761-767, December.
    10. Jean‐Marie Dufour & Lynda Khalaf & Marie‐Claude Beaulieu, 2003. "Exact Skewness–Kurtosis Tests for Multivariate Normality and Goodness‐of‐Fit in Multivariate Regressions with Application to Asset Pricing Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(s1), pages 891-906, December.
    11. Roll, Richard, 1981. "A Possible Explanation of the Small Firm Effect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(4), pages 879-888, September.
    12. Nawrocki, David N, 1996. "Market Dependence and Economic Events," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 287-312, May.
    13. Eric Jondeau & Michael Rockinger, 2006. "Optimal Portfolio Allocation under Higher Moments," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 12(1), pages 29-55, January.
    14. Post, G.T. & van Vliet, P., 2004. "Conditional Downside Risk and the CAPM," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2004-048-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    15. Andrew Ang & Joseph Chen & Yuhang Xing, 2006. "Downside Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(4), pages 1191-1239.
      • Andrew Ang & Joseph Chen & Yuhang Xing, 2005. "Downside risk," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Kroencke, Tim Alexander & Schindler, Felix, 2010. "Downside risk optimization in securitized real estate markets," ZEW Discussion Papers 10-034, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    17. Sévi, Benoît, 2013. "An empirical analysis of the downside risk-return trade-off at daily frequency," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 189-197.
    18. Tim‐Alexander Kroencke & Felix Schindler, 2010. "Downside risk optimization in securitized real estate markets," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 28(6), pages 434-453, September.
    19. Cumova, Denisa & Nawrocki, David, 2011. "A symmetric LPM model for heuristic mean-semivariance analysis," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 217-236, May.
    20. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 1997. "Emerging equity market volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 29-77, January.
    21. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:3:p:1039-1082 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Elton, Edwin J & Gruber, Martin J, 1977. "Risk Reduction and Portfolio Size: An Analytical Solution," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 50(4), pages 415-437, October.
    23. Statman, Meir, 1987. "How Many Stocks Make a Diversified Portfolio?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(3), pages 353-363, September.
    24. Attiya Y. Javid & Eatzaz Ahmad, 2008. "Test of Multi-moment Capital Asset Pricing Model: Evidence from Karachi Stock Exchange," PIDE-Working Papers 2008:49, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    25. Sofia B. Ramos & Jeroen K. Vermunt & José G. Dias, 2011. "When markets fall down: are emerging markets all the same?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(4), pages 324-338, October.
    26. de Athayde, Gustavo M. & Flores, Renato Jr., 2004. "Finding a maximum skewness portfolio--a general solution to three-moments portfolio choice," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1335-1352, April.
    27. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    28. Hogan, William W. & Warren, James M., 1972. "Computation of the Efficient Boundary in the E-S Portfolio Selection Model," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(4), pages 1881-1896, September.
    29. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard H, 1987. "Further Evidence on Investor Overreaction and Stock Market Seasonalit y," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 557-581, July.
    30. Bawa, Vijay S., 1975. "Optimal rules for ordering uncertain prospects," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 95-121, March.
    31. Sadka, Ronnie, 2006. "Momentum and post-earnings-announcement drift anomalies: The role of liquidity risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 309-349, May.
    32. Javed Iqbal & Robert Brooks & Don U.A. Galagedera, 2008. "Multivariate tests of asset pricing: Simulation evidence from an emerging market," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 2/08, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    33. Chunhachinda, Pornchai & Dandapani, Krishnan & Hamid, Shahid & Prakash, Arun J., 1997. "Portfolio selection and skewness: Evidence from international stock markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 143-167, February.
    34. Devinaga Rasiah, 2012. "Post-modern portfolio theory supports diversification in an investment portfolioto measure investment’s performance," Journal of Finance and Investment Analysis, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 1(1), pages 1-3.
    35. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    36. Bawa, Vijay S. & Lindenberg, Eric B., 1977. "Abstract: Capital Market Equilibrium in a Mean-Lower Partial Moment Framework," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 635-635, November.
    37. Gul, Faruk, 1991. "A Theory of Disappointment Aversion," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 667-686, May.
    38. Shanken, Jay, 1982. "The Arbitrage Pricing Theory: Is It Testable?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(5), pages 1129-1140, December.
    39. Estrada, Javier, 2007. "Mean-semivariance behavior: Downside risk and capital asset pricing," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 169-185.
    40. Daniel, Kent & Titman, Sheridan, 1997. "Evidence on the Characteristics of Cross Sectional Variation in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 1-33, March.
    41. Felix Schindler, 2009. "Correlation structure of real estate markets over time," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 27(6), pages 579-592, September.
    42. Harlow, W. V. & Rao, Ramesh K. S., 1989. "Asset Pricing in a Generalized Mean-Lower Partial Moment Framework: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(3), pages 285-311, September.
    43. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:2:p:831-868 is not listed on IDEAS
    44. Bawa, Vijay S. & Lindenberg, Eric B., 1977. "Capital market equilibrium in a mean-lower partial moment framework," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 189-200, November.
    45. Grootveld, Henk & Hallerbach, Winfried, 1999. "Variance vs downside risk: Is there really that much difference?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 304-319, April.
    46. Ang, James S. & Chua, Jess H., 1979. "Composite Measures for the Evaluation of Investment Performance," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 361-384, June.
    47. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    48. Joseph A. Atwood & Myles J. Watts & Glenn A. Helmers, 1988. "Chance-Constrained Financing as a Response to Financial Risk," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 70(1), pages 79-89.
    49. Haque, Mahfuzul & Kabir Hassan, M. & Varela, Oscar, 2004. "Safety-first portfolio optimization for US investors in emerging global, Asian and Latin American markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 91-116, January.
    50. Peter Byrne & Stephen Lee, 2000. "Risk reduction in the United Kingdom property market," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 23-46, January.
    51. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2004. "The Capital Asset Pricing Model: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(3), pages 25-46, Summer.
    52. Frahm, Gabriel & Wiechers, Christof, 2011. "On the diversification of portfolios of risky assets," Discussion Papers in Econometrics and Statistics 2/11, University of Cologne, Institute of Econometrics and Statistics.
    53. Narasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman, 2001. "Profitability of Momentum Strategies: An Evaluation of Alternative Explanations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 699-720, April.
    54. Campbell Harvey & John Liechty & Merrill Liechty & Peter Muller, 2010. "Portfolio selection with higher moments," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(5), pages 469-485.
    55. Attiya Y. Javid & Eatzaz Ahmad, 2008. "The Conditional Capital Asset Pricing Model: Evidence from Karachi Stock Exchange," PIDE-Working Papers 2008:48, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    56. Ang, James S., 1975. "A Note on the E, SL Portfolio Selection Model," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(5), pages 849-857, December.
    57. Campbell R. Harvey & Akhtar Siddique, 2000. "Conditional Skewness in Asset Pricing Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1263-1295, June.
    58. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Madiha Kazmi & Umara Noreen & Imran Abbas Jadoon & Attayah Shafique, 2021. "Downside Beta and Downside Gamma: In Search for a Better Capital Asset Pricing Model," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-14, December.
    2. Abdallah Ben Saida & Jean-luc Prigent, 2018. "On the robustness of portfolio allocation under copula misspecification," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 262(2), pages 631-652, March.
    3. Xidonas, Panos & Hassapis, Christis & Soulis, John & Samitas, Aristeidis, 2017. "Robust minimum variance portfolio optimization modelling under scenario uncertainty," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 60-71.
    4. Li, Xiafei & Guo, Qiang & Liang, Chao & Umar, Muhammad, 2023. "Forecasting gold volatility with geopolitical risk indices," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    5. Oussama Tilfani & Paulo Ferreira & Andreia Dionisio & My Youssef El Boukfaoui, 2020. "EU Stock Markets vs. Germany, UK and US: Analysis of Dynamic Comovements Using Time-Varying DCCA Correlation Coefficients," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-23, May.
    6. Xiafei Li & Dongxin Li & Xuhui Zhang & Guiwu Wei & Lan Bai & Yu Wei, 2021. "Forecasting regular and extreme gold price volatility: The roles of asymmetry, extreme event, and jump," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(8), pages 1501-1523, December.
    7. Lin Chen & Jin Peng & Bo Zhang & Isnaini Rosyida, 2017. "Diversified models for portfolio selection based on uncertain semivariance," International Journal of Systems Science, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(3), pages 637-648, February.
    8. Usman Ayub & Samaila Kausar & Umara Noreen & Muhammad Zakaria & Imran Abbas Jadoon, 2020. "Downside Risk-Based Six-Factor Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM): A New Paradigm in Asset Pricing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-16, August.
    9. Philip A. Horvath & Amit K. Sinha, 2017. "Asymmetric reaction is rational behavior," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 41(1), pages 160-179, January.
    10. Sun, Xuelian & Liu, Zixian, 2016. "Optimal portfolio strategy with cross-correlation matrix composed by DCCA coefficients: Evidence from the Chinese stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 444(C), pages 667-679.
    11. Thomas, Nisha Mary & Kashiramka, Smita & Yadav, Surendra Singh & Paul, Justin, 2022. "Role of emerging markets vis-à-vis frontier markets in improving portfolio diversification benefits," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 95-121.
    12. Li, Yanshuang & Shi, Yujie & Shi, Yongdong & Yi, Shangkun & Zhang, Weiping, 2023. "COVID-19 vaccinations and risk spillovers: Evidence from Asia-Pacific stock markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    13. Liu, Zhangxin (Frank) & Faff, Robert, 2017. "Hitting SKEW for SIX," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 449-464.
    14. Jiawen Luo & Oguzhan Cepni & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta, 2022. "Forecasting Multivariate Volatilities with Exogenous Predictors: An Application to Industry Diversification Strategies," Working Papers 202258, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhangxin (Frank) Liu & Michael J. O'Neill, 2018. "Partial moment volatility indices," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(1), pages 195-215, March.
    2. Tamara Teplova & Evgeniya Shutova, 2011. "A Higher Moment Downside Framework for Conditional and Unconditional Capm in the Russian Stock Market," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 1(2), pages 157-178, December.
    3. Amit Goyal, 2012. "Empirical cross-sectional asset pricing: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(1), pages 3-38, March.
    4. Cumova, Denisa & Nawrocki, David, 2011. "A symmetric LPM model for heuristic mean-semivariance analysis," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 217-236, May.
    5. Andrew Ang & Joseph Chen & Yuhang Xing, 2006. "Downside Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(4), pages 1191-1239.
      • Andrew Ang & Joseph Chen & Yuhang Xing, 2005. "Downside risk," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Javed Iqbal & Sara Azher, 2014. "Value-at-Risk and Expected Stock Returns: Evidence from Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 19(2), pages 71-100, July-Dec.
    7. Anthonisz, Sean A., 2012. "Asset pricing with partial-moments," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2122-2135.
    8. Briec, Walter & Kerstens, Kristiaan, 2010. "Portfolio selection in multidimensional general and partial moment space," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 636-656, April.
    9. Houda Hafsa & Dorra Hmaied, 2012. "Are Downside Higher Order Co-Moments Priced? : Evidence From The French Market," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 6(1), pages 65-81.
    10. Botshekan, Mahmoud & Kraeussl, Roman & Lucas, Andre, 2012. "Cash Flow and Discount Rate Risk in Up and Down Markets: What Is Actually Priced?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(6), pages 1279-1301, December.
    11. Tamara Ajrapetova, 2018. "Cross-Section of Asset Returns: Emerging Markets and Market Integration," European Financial and Accounting Journal, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2018(1), pages 41-60.
    12. Truong Thi Thu Thuy & Jungmu Kim, 2018. "Sustainability Managed against Downside Risk and the Cost of Equity: Evidence in Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-18, October.
    13. David Hirshleifer, 2001. "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1533-1597, August.
    14. Fernando Rubio, 2005. "Eficiencia De Mercado, Administracion De Carteras De Fondos Y Behavioural Finance," Finance 0503028, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2005.
    15. Atilgan, Yigit & Bali, Turan G. & Demirtas, K. Ozgur & Gunaydin, A. Doruk, 2019. "Global downside risk and equity returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 1-1.
    16. Sean A. Anthonisz & Tālis J. Putniņš, 2017. "Asset Pricing with Downside Liquidity Risks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(8), pages 2549-2572, August.
    17. Bollerslev, Tim & Patton, Andrew J. & Quaedvlieg, Rogier, 2022. "Realized semibetas: Disentangling “good” and “bad” downside risks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(1), pages 227-246.
    18. Ali, Heba, 2019. "Does downside risk matter more in asset pricing? Evidence from China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 154-174.
    19. Cumova, Denisa & Nawrocki, David, 2014. "Portfolio optimization in an upside potential and downside risk framework," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 68-89.
    20. Rodríguez, Yeny E. & Gómez, Juan M. & Contreras, Javier, 2021. "Diversified behavioral portfolio as an alternative to Modern Portfolio Theory," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:44:y:2015:i:c:p:86-96. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.