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Cash Flow and Discount Rate Risk in Up and Down Markets: What Is Actually Priced?

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  • Botshekan, Mahmoud
  • Kraeussl, Roman
  • Lucas, Andre

Abstract

We test whether asymmetric preferences for losses versus gains affect the prices of cash flow versus discount rate risk. We construct a return decomposition distinguishing cash flow and discount rate betas in up and down markets. Using U.S. data, we find that downside cash flow and discount rate betas carry the largest premia. Downside cash flow risk is priced consistently across different samples, periods, and return decomposition methods. It is the only component of beta with significant out-of-sample predictive ability. Downside cash flow premia mainly occur for small stocks, while large stocks are compensated for symmetric cash-flow-related risk.

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  • Botshekan, Mahmoud & Kraeussl, Roman & Lucas, Andre, 2012. "Cash Flow and Discount Rate Risk in Up and Down Markets: What Is Actually Priced?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(6), pages 1279-1301, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:47:y:2012:i:06:p:1279-1301_00
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    Cited by:

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    2. Kryzanowski, Lawrence & Mohsni, Sana, 2015. "Earnings forecasts and idiosyncratic volatilities," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 107-123.
    3. Atanasov, Victoria & Nitschka, Thomas, 2014. "Currency excess returns and global downside market risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 268-285.
    4. Maio, Paulo, 2013. "Return decomposition and the Intertemporal CAPM," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 4958-4972.
    5. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Westerlund, Joakim, 2014. "Does cash flow predict returns?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 230-236.
    6. Wu, Ming & Ohk, Kiyool & Ko, Kwangsoo, 2021. "Does cash-flow news play a better role than discount-rate news? Evidence from global regional stock markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    7. Chowdhury, Biplob & Jeyasreedharan, Nagaratnam & Dungey, Mardi, 2018. "Quantile relationships between standard, diffusion and jump betas across Japanese banks," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 29-47.
    8. Maio, Paulo & Philip, Dennis, 2015. "Macro variables and the components of stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 287-308.
    9. Olaf Stotz, 2021. "Expected and realized returns on stocks with high- and low-ESG exposure," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(2), pages 133-150, March.
    10. Ilan Cooper & Paulo Maio, 2019. "Asset Growth, Profitability, and Investment Opportunities," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(9), pages 3988-4010, September.
    11. Richard Mawulawoe Ahadzie & Nagaratnam Jeyasreedharan, 2024. "Higher‐order moments and asset pricing in the Australian stock market," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 64(1), pages 75-128, March.
    12. Kausar, Rabia & Qayyum, Abdul, 2018. "How Cash Flow News and Discount Rate News Impact the Unexpected Stock Returns of Energy Firms of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 91165, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Wu, Ming & Ohk, Kiyool & Ko, Kwangsoo, 2019. "Are cash-flow betas really bad? Evidence from the Greater Chinese stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 58-68.
    14. Piccotti, Louis R., 2017. "Financial contagion risk and the stochastic discount factor," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 230-248.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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