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Value-at-Risk and Expected Stock Returns: Evidence from Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Javed Iqbal

    (Assistant Professor, Institute of Business Administration, Karachi, Pakistan.)

  • Sara Azher

    (Department of Statistics, University of Karachi, Pakistan.)

Abstract

This study investigates whether exposure to downside risk, as measured by value-at-risk (VaR), explains expected returns in an emerging market, i.e., Pakistan. We find that portfolios with a higher VaR are associated with higher average returns. In order to explore the empirical performance of VaR at the portfolio level, we use a time series approach based on 25 size and book-to-market portfolios. Based on monthly portfolio data for October 1992 to June 2008, the results show that VaR has greater explanatory power than the market, size, and book-to-market factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Javed Iqbal & Sara Azher, 2014. "Value-at-Risk and Expected Stock Returns: Evidence from Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 19(2), pages 71-100, July-Dec.
    • Handle: RePEc:lje:journl:v:19:y:2014:i:2:p:71-100
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Muhammad Adnan Arshad & Saira Munir & Bashir Ahmad & Muhammad Waseem, 2019. "Do factors matter for predicting high-risk stock returns? Comparison of single-, three- and five-factor CAPM," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(02), pages 1-16, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Value-at-risk; emerging market; Fama-French factors;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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