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How does extreme heat affect carbon emission intensity? Evidence from county-level data in China

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  • Jiang, Lei
  • Yang, Linshuang
  • Wu, Qingyang
  • Zhang, Xinyue

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of increasingly frequent extreme heat events due to climate change on carbon emission intensities in China. Using spline regressions on county-level data from 2000 to 2019, we identify an asymmetric U-shaped relationship between daily mean temperatures and carbon intensities. Each additional day with temperatures above 33 °C in each location results in a 0.9% rise in the average annual carbon intensity, driven by higher energy consumption for cooling. We also explore the mitigating effects of China's low-carbon city initiatives and emissions trading scheme. By combining our estimation results with future temperature trajectories, we simulate that, in the long run, China's carbon intensity can increase by 8–13% under the SSP1-2.6 scenario and 24–51% under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Our findings underscore the urgency for policymakers to thoroughly assess the socioeconomic impacts of heat waves and incorporate climate resilience into overall sustainable development plans.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiang, Lei & Yang, Linshuang & Wu, Qingyang & Zhang, Xinyue, 2024. "How does extreme heat affect carbon emission intensity? Evidence from county-level data in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:139:y:2024:i:c:s0264999324001706
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106814
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    3. Fei Wang & Changjian Wang & Xiaojie Lin & Zeng Li & Changlong Sun, 2024. "County-Level Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Driving Mechanisms of Carbon Emissions in the Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-25, November.

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