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China feels the heat: negative impacts of high temperatures on China's rice sector

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  • Xiaoguang Chen
  • Shuai Chen

Abstract

We analysed a county‐level data set of single‐season rice yield and daily weather outcomes in China to examine the effects of temperature on China's rice sector. We found that rice yield exhibited highly nonlinear responses to temperature changes: rice yield increased with temperature up to 28°C and decreased sharply with higher temperatures. Holding current growing seasons and regions constant, average rice yield in China is projected to decrease by 10–19 per cent by 2050 and 11–33 per cent by 2070 due to future warming under the global climate models HadGEM2‐ES and NorESM1‐M. These results imply that future warming poses a major challenge for Chinese rice farmers and that the effectiveness of adaptations will depend on how well they reduce the negative temperature impacts on rice yield because of very hot days.

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  • Xiaoguang Chen & Shuai Chen, 2018. "China feels the heat: negative impacts of high temperatures on China's rice sector," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 62(4), pages 576-588, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ajarec:v:62:y:2018:i:4:p:576-588
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-8489.12267
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    Cited by:

    1. Qinyu Deng & Wei Xie & Ke Wang, 2023. "Impact of extreme temperatures on production of different rice types: A county‐level analysis for China," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(2), pages 1097-1133, June.
    2. Wenjian He & Yiyang Liu & Huaping Sun & Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, 2020. "How Does Climate Change Affect Rice Yield in China?," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-16, September.
    3. Jiang, Lei & Yang, Linshuang & Wu, Qingyang & Zhang, Xinyue, 2024. "How does extreme heat affect carbon emission intensity? Evidence from county-level data in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    4. Xiaoguang Chen & Madhu Khanna & Lu Yang, 2022. "The impacts of temperature on Chinese food processing firms," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 66(2), pages 256-279, April.
    5. Chen, Shuai & Gong, Binlei, 2021. "Response and adaptation of agriculture to climate change: Evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    6. Zhang, Shaohui & Guo, Qinxin & Smyth, Russell & Yao, Yao, 2022. "Extreme temperatures and residential electricity consumption: Evidence from Chinese households," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    7. Yu, Xiumei & Lei, Xiaoyan & Wang, Min, 2019. "Temperature effects on mortality and household adaptation: Evidence from China," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 195-212.
    8. Seungki Lee & Yongjie Ji & GianCarlo Moschini, 2021. "Agricultural Innovation and Adaptation to Climate Change: Insights from Genetically Engineered Maize," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 21-wp616, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.

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