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Increase in frequency of nuclear power outages due to changing climate

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  • Ali Ahmad

    (Harvard University)

Abstract

Climate-related changes have already affected operating conditions for different types of energy system, in particular power plants. With more than three decades of data on changing climate, we are now in a position to empirically assess the impact of climate change on power plant operations. Such empirical assessments can provide an additional measure of the resilience of power plants going forward. Here I analyse climate-linked outages in nuclear power plants over the past three decades. My assessment shows that the average frequency of climate-induced disruptions has dramatically increased from 0.2 outage per reactor-year in the 1990s to 1.5 in the past decade. Based on the projections for adopted climate scenarios, the average annual energy loss of the global nuclear fleet is estimated to range between 0.8% and 1.4% in the mid-term (2046–2065) and 1.4% and 2.4% in the long term (2081–2100).

Suggested Citation

  • Ali Ahmad, 2021. "Increase in frequency of nuclear power outages due to changing climate," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 6(7), pages 755-762, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natene:v:6:y:2021:i:7:d:10.1038_s41560-021-00849-y
    DOI: 10.1038/s41560-021-00849-y
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    Cited by:

    1. Brunner, L.G. & Peer, R.A.M. & Zorn, C. & Paulik, R. & Logan, T.M., 2024. "Understanding cascading risks through real-world interdependent urban infrastructure," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    2. Ahmad, Ali & Covatariu, Andrei & Ramana, M.V., 2023. "A stormy future? Financial impact of climate change-related disruptions on nuclear power plant owners," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    3. Jeong, Minsoo & You, Jung S., 2022. "Estimating the economic costs of nuclear power plant outages in a regulated market using a latent factor model," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    4. Grace Dehner & Mark K. McBeth & Rae Moss & Irene van Woerden, 2023. "A Zero-Carbon Nuclear Energy Future? Lessons Learned from Perceptions of Climate Change and Nuclear Waste," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-16, February.

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