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Vulnerable growth in the Euro Area: Measuring the financial conditions

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  • Figueres, Juan Manuel
  • Jarociński, Marek

Abstract

This paper examines which measures of financial conditions are informative about the tail risks to output growth in the euro area. The Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress (CISS) is more informative than indicators focusing on narrower segments of financial markets or their simple aggregation in the principal component. Conditionally on the CISS one can reproduce for the euro area the stylized facts known from the US, such as the strong negative correlation between conditional mean and conditional variance that generates stable upper quantiles and volatile lower quantiles of output growth. JEL Classification: C12, E37, E44

Suggested Citation

  • Figueres, Juan Manuel & Jarociński, Marek, 2020. "Vulnerable growth in the Euro Area: Measuring the financial conditions," Working Paper Series 2458, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20202458
    Note: 400529
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kremer, Manfred & Lo Duca, Marco & Holló, Dániel, 2012. "CISS - a composite indicator of systemic stress in the financial system," Working Paper Series 1426, European Central Bank.
    2. Simon Gilchrist & Benoit Mojon, 2018. "Credit Risk in the Euro Area," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(608), pages 118-158, February.
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    4. Simon Gilchrist & Benoit Mojon, 2018. "Credit Risk in the Euro Area," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(608), pages 118-158, February.
    5. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Ricco, Giovanni & Hasenzagl, Thomas, 2020. "Financial variables as predictors of real growth vulnerability," Discussion Papers 05/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Matheson, Troy D., 2012. "Financial conditions indexes for the United States and euro area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 441-446.
    7. Giacomini, Raffaella & Komunjer, Ivana, 2002. "Evaluation and Combination of Conditional Quantile Forecasts," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt4n99t4wz, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    8. Tobias Adrian & Nina Boyarchenko & Domenico Giannone, 2019. "Vulnerable Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(4), pages 1263-1289, April.
    9. Giacomini, Raffaella & Komunjer, Ivana, 2005. "Evaluation and Combination of Conditional Quantile Forecasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 416-431, October.
    10. Adrian, Tobias & Duarte, Fernando & Liang, Nellie & Zabczyk, Pawel, 2020. "Monetary and Macroprudential Policy with Endogenous Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 14435, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    downside risk; macro-financial linkages; quantile regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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