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Quantiles, Expectiles and Splines

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  • DeRossi, G.
  • Harvey, A.

Abstract

A time-varying quantile can be fitted to a sequence of observations by formulating a time series model for the corresponding population quantile and iteratively applying a suitably modified state space signal extraction algorithm. It is shown that such time-varying quantiles satisfy the defining property of fixed quantiles in having the appropriate number of observations above and below. Expectiles are similar to quantiles except that they are defined by tail expectations. Like quantiles, time-varying expectiles can be estimated by a state space signal extraction algorithm and they satisfy properties that generalize the moment conditions associated with fixed expectiles. Time-varying quantiles and expectiles provide information on various aspects of a time series, such as dispersion and asymmetry, while estimates at the end of the series provide the basis for forecasting. Because the state space form can handle irregularly spaced observations, the proposed algorithms can be easily adapted to provide a viable means of computing spline-based non-parametric quantile and expectile regressions.

Suggested Citation

  • DeRossi, G. & Harvey, A., 2007. "Quantiles, Expectiles and Splines," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0660, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    • Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:0660
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Harvey, A.C. & Koopman, S.J.M., 1999. "Signal Extraction and the Formulation of Unobserved Components Models," Other publications TiSEM 44688527-92c9-4c46-ac53-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    2. Koenker,Roger, 2005. "Quantile Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521845731, January.
    3. Robert F. Engle & Simone Manganelli, 2004. "CAViaR: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 367-381, October.
    4. Siem Jan Koopman & Neil Shephard & Jurgen A. Doornik, 1999. "Statistical algorithms for models in state space using SsfPack 2.2," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(1), pages 107-160.
    5. Bosch, Ronald J. & Ye, Yinyu & Woodworth, George G., 1995. "A convergent algorithm for quantile regression with smoothing splines," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 613-630, June.
    6. Jondeau, Eric & Rockinger, Michael, 2003. "Conditional volatility, skewness, and kurtosis: existence, persistence, and comovements," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(10), pages 1699-1737, August.
    7. Andrew Harvey & Siem Jan Koopman, 2000. "Signal extraction and the formulation of unobserved components models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(1), pages 84-107.
    8. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2012. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199641178, Decembrie.
    9. Busettti, F. & Harvey, A., 2007. "Tests of time-invariance," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0701, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    10. DeRossi, G. & Harvey, A., 2006. "Time-Varying Quantiles," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0649, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    11. Newey, Whitney K & Powell, James L, 1987. "Asymmetric Least Squares Estimation and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(4), pages 819-847, July.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asymmetric least squares; cubic splines; dispersion; non-parametric regression; quantile regression; signal extraction; state space smoother.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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