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Convergent movement of COVID-19 outbreak in Japan based on SIR model

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  • Masuhara, Hiroaki
  • Hosoya, Kei

Abstract

The infection dynamics of COVID-19 show frequent phases in which the infection spreads rapidly, resembling explosive infection. However, despite the repeated increases and decreases, there is a process of convergence even within a relatively short period of time. While it is obvious that the growth rate of the cumulative number of infected people slows down as it increases, considering the infectious disease process, we also observe a slowdown in the growth rate of the net number of infected people. Moreover, there exists a special type of convergence whereby areas with initially many infected people exhibit low rates of increase in the numbers of infected people subsequently. This paper uses prefectural panel data from Japan through March 2021 to confirm the convergence process.

Suggested Citation

  • Masuhara, Hiroaki & Hosoya, Kei, 2022. "Convergent movement of COVID-19 outbreak in Japan based on SIR model," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 29-43.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:73:y:2022:i:c:p:29-43
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2021.10.016
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    Cited by:

    1. Funashima, Yoshito & Hiraga, Kazuki, 2023. "Did the Japanese government’s travel subsidy increase the number of hotel guests and infection during the COVID-19 pandemic?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 1005-1025.
    2. MASUHARA Hiroaki & HOSOYA Kei, 2022. "What Impacts Do Human Mobility and Vaccination Have on Trends in COVID-19 Infections? Evidence from four developed countries," Discussion papers 22087, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; SIR model; Convergence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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