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Policy Implications of Models of the Spread of Coronavirus: Perspectives and Opportunities for Economists

Author

Listed:
  • Christopher Avery
  • William Bossert
  • Adam Thomas Clark
  • Glenn Ellison
  • Sara Ellison

Abstract

This paper provides a critical review of models of the spread of the coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) that have been influential in recent policy discussions. It notes potentially important features of the real- world environment that the standard models do not incorporate and discusses reasons why estimating critical parameters is difficult. These limitations may bias forecasts and lead forecasters to overstate confidence in their predictions. They also provide social scientists with opportunities to advance the literature and enable improved policies. This paper also discusses how optimal policies might depend on what is learned from new data and models.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher Avery & William Bossert & Adam Thomas Clark & Glenn Ellison & Sara Ellison, 2020. "Policy Implications of Models of the Spread of Coronavirus: Perspectives and Opportunities for Economists," CESifo Working Paper Series 8293, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8293
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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