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Quantifying the impact of the Tokyo Olympics on COVID-19 cases using synthetic control methods

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  • Esaka, Taro
  • Fujii, Takao

Abstract

This paper uses a synthetic control method (SCM) and a Ridge Augmented SCM to estimate the impact of holding the Tokyo Olympic games on the number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in Tokyo (Japan). Our analysis with these methods enables us to estimate the causal impact of the Tokyo Olympics on COVID-19 cases by constructing counterfactual COVID-19 cases for Tokyo (Japan) as the optimal weighted average of COVID-19 cases of OECD countries that are not affected by holding the Olympics through a data-driven approach. Based on reliable estimates obtained from different analytical settings, we find that, compared to the counterfactuals, holding the Tokyo Olympics significantly increased the daily average number of COVID-19 cases by 105 to 132 cases in Tokyo (47 to 65 cases in Japan as a whole) per million people. This result suggests that holding the Olympics likely led to the spread of COVID-19 infection in Tokyo (Japan).

Suggested Citation

  • Esaka, Taro & Fujii, Takao, 2022. "Quantifying the impact of the Tokyo Olympics on COVID-19 cases using synthetic control methods," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jjieco:v:66:y:2022:i:c:s0889158322000375
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2022.101228
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Bilbao-Goyoaga, Eugenia, 2023. "Perceptions Matter: Quasi-Experimental Evidence on the Effects of Minimum Income on Objective and Subjective Financial Wellbeing in Spain," SocArXiv wv7xt, Center for Open Science.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Tokyo Olympics; Public health; Synthetic control method; Causal inference; Counterfactual;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • H10 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - General
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

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