IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/dyncon/v127y2021ics016518892100052x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Demographic transition, human capital and economic growth in China

Author

Listed:
  • Bairoliya, Neha
  • Miller, Ray

Abstract

We assess the impact of demographic changes on human capital accumulation and aggregate output using an overlapping generations model with endogenous savings and human capital investment decisions. We focus on China as it has experienced rapid changes in demographics as well as human capital levels between 1970 and 2010. Additionally, further variations in demographics are expected due to the recently introduced two-child policy. Model simulations indicate that education shares and income per capita will be lower with a fertility rebound as compared to status quo fertility. We find education policy to be effective in mitigating these adverse outcomes associated with higher fertility. While long-run declines in output per capita can be offset by a 4.7% increase in the government education budget, it requires a 28% increase to achieve the same outcome in the short run.

Suggested Citation

  • Bairoliya, Neha & Miller, Ray, 2021. "Demographic transition, human capital and economic growth in China," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:127:y:2021:i:c:s016518892100052x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2021.104117
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016518892100052X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jedc.2021.104117?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fleisher, Belton M. & Wang, Xiaojun, 2005. "Returns to schooling in China under planning and reform," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 265-277, June.
    2. Franco Modigliani & Shi Larry Cao, 2004. "The Chinese Saving Puzzle and the Life-Cycle Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(1), pages 145-170, March.
    3. Robert C. Feenstra & Robert Inklaar & Marcel P. Timmer, 2015. "The Next Generation of the Penn World Table," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(10), pages 3150-3182, October.
    4. Blackorby,Charles & Bossert,Walter & Donaldson,David J., 2005. "Population Issues in Social Choice Theory, Welfare Economics, and Ethics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521532587, September.
    5. Banerjee, Abhijit & Qian, Nancy & Meng, Xin & Porzio, Tommaso, 2014. "Aggregate Fertility and Household Savings: A General Equilibrium Analysis using Micro Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 9935, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Mark R. Rosenzweig & Junsen Zhang, 2009. "Do Population Control Policies Induce More Human Capital Investment? Twins, Birth Weight and China's "One-Child" Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 76(3), pages 1149-1174.
    7. Yang, Dennis Tao, 2005. "Determinants of schooling returns during transition: Evidence from Chinese cities," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 244-264, June.
    8. Ronald Lee & Andrew Mason, 2010. "Some macroeconomic aspects of global population aging," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 47(1), pages 151-172, March.
    9. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2010. "Population Aging and Economic Growth in Asia," NBER Chapters, in: The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in East Asia, pages 61-89, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Hongbin Li & Junsen Zhang & Yi Zhu, 2008. "The quantity-Quality trade-Off of children In a developing country: Identification using chinese twins," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 45(1), pages 223-243, February.
    11. Chadwick C. Curtis & Steven Lugauer & Nelson C. Mark, 2015. "Demographic Patterns and Household Saving in China," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 58-94, April.
    12. Bloom, David E. & Börsch-Supan, Axel & McGee, Patrick & Seike, Atsushi, 1970. "Population Aging: Facts, Challenges, and Responses," MEA discussion paper series 201224, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    13. George Psacharopoulos & Harry Anthony Patrinos, 2004. "Returns to investment in education: a further update," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 111-134.
    14. Marcos D. Chamon & Eswar S. Prasad, 2010. "Why Are Saving Rates of Urban Households in China Rising?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 93-130, January.
    15. Taha Choukhmane & Nicolas Coeurdacier & Keyu Jin, 2023. "The One-Child Policy and Household Saving," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(3), pages 987-1032.
    16. repec:bla:pacecr:v:9:y:2004:i:3:p:155-171 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Judith Banister & David E. Bloom & Larry Rosenberg, 2010. "Population Aging and Economic Growth in China," PGDA Working Papers 5310, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    18. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2010. "The Cost of Low Fertility in Europe [Le coût de la basse fécondité en Europe]," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 26(2), pages 141-158, May.
    19. Honge Gong & Andrew Leigh & Xin Meng, 2012. "Intergenerational Income Mobility In Urban China," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 58(3), pages 481-503, September.
    20. Ronald Lee & A. Mason & E. Amporfu & C.-B. An & L. R. Bixby & J. Bravo & M. Bucheli & Q. Chen & P. Comelatto & D. Coy & Hippolyte d'Albis & G. Donehower & L. Dramani & A. Furnkranz-Prskawetz & R. I. G, 2014. "Is low fertility really a problem? Population aging, dependency, and consumption," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-01075298, HAL.
    21. Liao, Pei-Ju, 2013. "The one-child policy: A macroeconomic analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 49-62.
    22. David Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn Finlay, 2009. "Fertility, female labor force participation, and the demographic dividend," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 79-101, June.
    23. Ge, Suqin & Yang, Dennis Tao & Zhang, Junsen, 2018. "Population policies, demographic structural changes, and the Chinese household saving puzzle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 181-209.
    24. Prettner, Klaus & Bloom, David E. & Strulik, Holger, 2013. "Declining fertility and economic well-being: Do education and health ride to the rescue?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 70-79.
    25. Meng, Xin, 2003. "Unemployment, consumption smoothing, and precautionary saving in urban China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 465-485, September.
    26. Zhang, Junsen & Zhao, Yaohui & Park, Albert & Song, Xiaoqing, 2005. "Economic returns to schooling in urban China, 1988 to 2001," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 730-752, December.
    27. Ronald Lee & Andrew Mason (ed.), 2011. "Population Aging and the Generational Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13816.
    28. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong Wha, 2013. "A new data set of educational attainment in the world, 1950–2010," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 184-198.
    29. Meena Seshamani & Alastair Gray, 2004. "Ageing and health‐care expenditure: the red herring argument revisited," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 303-314, April.
    30. İmrohoroğlu, Ayşe & Zhao, Kai, 2018. "The chinese saving rate: Long-term care risks, family insurance, and demographics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 33-52.
    31. Andrew Mason & Ronald Lee, 2011. "Population aging and the generational economy: key findings," Chapters, in: Ronald Lee & Andrew Mason (ed.), Population Aging and the Generational Economy, chapter 1, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    32. Laitner, John, 1992. "Random earnings differences, lifetime liquidity constraints, and altruistic intergenerational transfers," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 135-170, December.
    33. Ronald Lee & Andrew Mason, 2010. "Fertility, Human Capital, and Economic Growth over the Demographic Transition [Fécondité, capital humain et croissance économique au cours de la transition démographique]," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 26(2), pages 159-182, May.
    34. Hai Fang & Karen N. Eggleston & John A. Rizzo & Scott Rozelle & Richard J. Zeckhauser, 2012. "The Returns to Education in China: Evidence from the 1986 Compulsory Education Law," NBER Working Papers 18189, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. Tsang, Mun C., 1996. "Financial reform of basic education in China," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 423-444, October.
    36. Li, Haizheng, 2003. "Economic transition and returns to education in China," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 317-328, June.
    37. repec:bla:pacecr:v:9:y:2004:i:3:p:191-207 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jingjing Xu, 2024. "Intergenerational transfers in China: What are the patterns of the transfers and when do the transfers occur?," International Studies of Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(1), pages 117-150, March.
    2. Zhiguang Zhang & Haiqing Hu & Xin Zhao & Yangrui Bai, 2022. "Dynamic Influences of FDI and R&D Expenditures on IT Business Value: An Empirical Test from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-16, September.
    3. Alvarado, Rafael & Cuesta, Lizeth & Kumar, Pavan & Rehman, Abdul & Murshed, Muntasir & Işık, Cem & Vega, Nora & Ochoa-Moreno, Santiago & Tillaguango, Brayan, 2022. "Impact of natural resources on economic progress: Evidence for trading blocs in Latin America using non-linear econometric methods," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    4. Kornelia Piech, 2022. "Health Care Financing and Economic Performance during the Coronavirus Pandemic, the War in Ukraine and the Energy Transition Attempt," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-23, August.
    5. Yiping Gao & Rong Yuan & Shenglin Zheng, 2022. "Effects of Human Capital on Energy Consumption: The Role of Income Inequality," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(24), pages 1-17, December.
    6. Liu, Zijun & Chen, Sheng & Tang, Tingting & Luo, Hang & Guan, Qinghao, 2024. "How public education investment and advanced human capital structure affect regional innovation: A spatial econometric analysis from the perspective of innovation value chain," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    7. Houjian Li & Xiaolei Zhou & Mengqian Tang & Lili Guo, 2022. "Impact of Population Aging and Renewable Energy Consumption on Agricultural Green Total Factor Productivity in Rural China: Evidence from Panel VAR Approach," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-19, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. İmrohoroğlu, Ayşe & Zhao, Kai, 2018. "The chinese saving rate: Long-term care risks, family insurance, and demographics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 33-52.
    2. David E. Bloom & Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2024. "Fertility in High-Income Countries: Trends, Patterns, Determinants, and Consequences," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 16(1), pages 159-184, August.
    3. Michael Dotsey, 2019. "Demographic Aging, Industrial Policy, and Chinese Economic Growth," 2019 Meeting Papers 640, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Quamrul H. Ashraf & David N. Weil & Joshua Wilde, 2013. "The Effect of Fertility Reduction on Economic Growth," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 39(1), pages 97-130, March.
    5. Steven Lugauer & Jinlan Ni & Zhichao Yin, 2014. "Micro-Data Evidence on Family Size and Chinese Saving Rates," Working Papers 023, University of Notre Dame, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2014.
    6. Hai Fang & Karen N. Eggleston & John A. Rizzo & Scott Rozelle & Richard J. Zeckhauser, 2012. "The Returns to Education in China: Evidence from the 1986 Compulsory Education Law," NBER Working Papers 18189, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Michael Dotsey & Wenli Li & Fang Yang, 2019. "Demographic Aging, Industrial Policy, and Chinese Economic Growth," Working Papers 19-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    8. Curtis, Chadwick C. & Lugauer, Steven & Mark, Nelson C., 2017. "Demographics and aggregate household saving in Japan, China, and India," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 175-191.
    9. Ahmed, S. Amer & Vargas Da Cruz,Marcio Jose & Quillin,Bryce Ramsey & Schellekens,Philip, 2016. "Demographic change and development : a global typology," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7893, The World Bank.
    10. Zhu, Xi & Whalley, John & Zhao, Xiliang, 2014. "Intergenerational transfer, human capital and long-term growth in China under the one child policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 275-283.
    11. CHEN, Guifu & HAMORI, Shigeyuki, 2009. "Economic returns to schooling in urban China: OLS and the instrumental variables approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 143-152, June.
    12. Yi Chen & Yingfei Huang, 2020. "The power of the government: China's Family Planning Leading Group and the fertility decline of the 1970s," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 42(35), pages 985-1038.
    13. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Stéphane Guibaud & Keyu Jin, 2015. "Credit Constraints and Growth in a Global Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(9), pages 2838-2881, September.
    14. Michael Dotsey & Wenli Li & Fang Yang, 2022. "Demographic Transition, Industrial Policies, and Chinese Economic Growth," Working Papers 22-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    15. Chadwick C. Curtis & Steven Lugauer & Nelson C. Mark, 2015. "Demographic Patterns and Household Saving in China," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 58-94, April.
    16. Prettner, Klaus & Bloom, David E. & Strulik, Holger, 2013. "Declining fertility and economic well-being: Do education and health ride to the rescue?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 70-79.
    17. Vinod Mishra & Russell Smyth, 2012. "Returns to Schooling in Urban China: New Evidence Using Heteroskedasticity Restrictions to Obtain Identification Without Exclusion Restrictions," Monash Economics Working Papers 33-12, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    18. Abhijit Banerjee & Xin Meng & Tommaso Porzio & Nancy Qian, 2014. "Aggregate Fertility and Household Savings: A General Equilibrium Analysis using Micro Data," NBER Working Papers 20050, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. He, Hui & Huang, Feng & Liu, Zheng & Zhu, Dongming, 2018. "Breaking the “iron rice bowl:” Evidence of precautionary savings from the chinese state-owned enterprises reform," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 94-113.
    20. Song, Zhongchen & Coupé, Tom & Reed, W. Robert, 2021. "Estimating the effect of the one-child policy on Chinese household savings - Evidence from an Oaxaca decomposition," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; Health; Aging; Fertility; Human capital;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • I13 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Insurance, Public and Private
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:127:y:2021:i:c:s016518892100052x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.