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Credit constraints and growth in a global economy

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  • Jin, Keyu
  • Guibaud, Stéphane
  • Coeurdacier, Nicolas

Abstract

We show that in an open-economy OLG model, the interaction between growth differentials and household credit constraints, more severe in fast-growing countries, can explain three prominent global trends: a divergence in private saving rates between advanced and emerging economies, large net capital outflows from the latter, and a sustained decline in the world interest rate. Micro-level evidence on the evolution of age-saving profiles in the U.S. and China corroborates our mechanism. Quantitatively, our model explains about 40 percent of the divergence in aggregate saving rates, and a significant portion of the variations in age-saving profiles across countries and over time.

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  • Jin, Keyu & Guibaud, Stéphane & Coeurdacier, Nicolas, 2011. "Credit constraints and growth in a global economy," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 35706, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:35706
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Globalization; capital ows; credit constraints; current account; demographics; social security.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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