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The one-child policy: A macroeconomic analysis

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  • Liao, Pei-Ju

Abstract

This paper studies the effects of China's one-child policy. Using a calibrated general-equilibrium model, a benchmark with a fertility constraint in place is compared to a counterfactual experiment without the fertility constraint. The results indicate that the implementation of the one-child policy promotes the accumulation of human capital and increases per capita output. In addition, the policy leads to different welfare effects across generations and skill groups. The initial generation would benefit from relaxing the one-child policy, but the following generations would be hurt. A redistribution effect between skilled and unskilled workers is also observed. These findings demonstrate that focusing solely on GDP per capita as a measure of economic well-being paints an incomplete picture of the welfare consequences of population policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Liao, Pei-Ju, 2013. "The one-child policy: A macroeconomic analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 49-62.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:101:y:2013:i:c:p:49-62
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2012.09.001
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    Cited by:

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    2. Matthias Doepke & Anne Hannusch & Fabian Kindermann & Michèle Tertilt, 2022. "The Economics of Fertility: A New Era," NBER Working Papers 29948, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    5. Pengkun Wu & Yuanyuan Wu & Chong Wu, 2018. "Research on Fertility Policy in China: The Relative Necessity for Reform Among the Different Provinces," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 135(2), pages 751-767, January.
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    7. Bairoliya, Neha & Miller, Ray, 2021. "Social insurance, demographics, and rural-urban migration in China," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    8. Gu, Ke & Stoyanov, Andrey, 2022. "Female Labor Supply and International Trade," MPRA Paper 111778, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. İmrohoroğlu, Ayşe & Zhao, Kai, 2018. "The chinese saving rate: Long-term care risks, family insurance, and demographics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 33-52.
    10. Zhen Hu & James Yang, 2021. "Does Delayed Retirement Crowd Out Workforce Welfare? Evidence in China," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(4), pages 21582440211, November.
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    12. Cordoba, Juan Carlos & Liu, Xiying, 2014. "Altruism, fertility and risk," ISU General Staff Papers 201404050700001022, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    13. Tian, Xu & von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan, 2020. "Are only children in China more likely to be obese/overweight than their counterparts with siblings?," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    14. Szabó-Bakos, Eszter & Kuncz, Izabella & Németh, Petra, 2023. "A harmincévesnél fiatalabb anyák szja-kedvezményének várható demográfiai és makrogazdasági hatásai [The expected demographic and macroeconomic effects of the personal income tax relief for mothers ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 1213-1229.
    15. Liu, Xiying, 2015. "Optimal population and policy implications," ISU General Staff Papers 201501010800005546, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    16. Juan Carlos Cordoba, 2015. "Children, Dynastic Altruism and the Wealth of Nations," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(4), pages 774-791, October.
    17. Zhu, Xi & Whalley, John & Zhao, Xiliang, 2014. "Intergenerational transfer, human capital and long-term growth in China under the one child policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 275-283.
    18. Xue, Jianpo & Yip, Chong K., 2017. "One-child policy in China : A unified growth analysis," BOFIT Discussion Papers 22/2017, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    19. Hualei Yang, 2016. "The choice of pension and retirement systems when post-1960s baby boomers start to retire in China," China Finance and Economic Review, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 1-15, December.
    20. Juan Carlos Cordoba, 2015. "Children, Dynastic Altruism and the Wealth of Nations," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(4), pages 774-791, October.
    21. Xue, Jianpo & Yip, Chong K., 2017. "One-child policy in China: A unified growth analysis," BOFIT Discussion Papers 22/2017, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    22. Pei-Ju Liao & Ping Wang & Yin-Chi Wang & Chong Kee Yip, 2020. "To Stay or to Migrate? When Becker Meets Harris-Todaro," NBER Working Papers 27767, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. repec:zbw:bofitp:2017_022 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Ziqi Wang & Ziyao Huang & Jingjing Cai, 2023. "Does the One-Child Policy Improve Chinese Human Capital? A Propensity Score Matching Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-24, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    The one-child policy; Fertility; Population policies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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