IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/moneco/v94y2018icp94-113.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Breaking the “iron rice bowl:” Evidence of precautionary savings from the chinese state-owned enterprises reform

Author

Listed:
  • He, Hui
  • Huang, Feng
  • Liu, Zheng
  • Zhu, Dongming

Abstract

China’s large-scale reform of state-owned enterprises (SOE) in the late 1990s provides a natural experiment for estimating precautionary savings. Before the reform, SOE workers enjoyed similar job security as government employees. The reform caused massive SOE layoffs, but government employees kept their “iron rice bowl.” The changes in the relative unemployment risks for SOE workers provide a clean identification of income uncertainty. With self-selection biases mitigated by focusing on government assigned jobs, precautionary savings account for about 40 percent of SOE households’ wealth accumulation. Moreover, demographic groups more vulnerable to the reform also accumulated more precautionary wealth.

Suggested Citation

  • He, Hui & Huang, Feng & Liu, Zheng & Zhu, Dongming, 2018. "Breaking the “iron rice bowl:” Evidence of precautionary savings from the chinese state-owned enterprises reform," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 94-113.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:94:y:2018:i:c:p:94-113
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2017.12.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304393217301654
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2017.12.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Caballero, Ricardo J., 1990. "Consumption puzzles and precautionary savings," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 113-136, January.
    2. Kimball, Miles S, 1990. "Precautionary Saving in the Small and in the Large," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 53-73, January.
    3. Christopher D. Carroll & Karen E. Dynan & Spencer D. Krane, 2003. "Unemployment Risk and Precautionary Wealth: Evidence from Households' Balance Sheets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 586-604, August.
    4. Franco Modigliani & Shi Larry Cao, 2004. "The Chinese Saving Puzzle and the Life-Cycle Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(1), pages 145-170, March.
    5. Chang-Tai Hsieh & Zheng (Michael) Song, 2015. "Grasp the Large, Let Go of the Small: The Transformation of the State Sector in China," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 50(1 (Spring), pages 295-366.
    6. Charles Yuji Horioka & Junmin Wan, 2007. "The Determinants of Household Saving in China: A Dynamic Panel Analysis of Provincial Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(8), pages 2077-2096, December.
    7. Chadwick C. Curtis & Steven Lugauer & Nelson C. Mark, 2015. "Demographic Patterns and Household Saving in China," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 58-94, April.
    8. Chang-Tai Hsieh & Zheng (Michael) Song, 2015. "Grasp the Large, Let Go of the Small: The Transformation of the State Sector in China," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 46(1 (Spring), pages 295-366.
    9. Meng,Xin, 2009. "Labour Market Reform in China," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521121118, January.
    10. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Jonathan A. Parker, 2002. "Consumption Over the Life Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 47-89, January.
    11. Marcos D. Chamon & Eswar S. Prasad, 2010. "Why Are Saving Rates of Urban Households in China Rising?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 93-130, January.
    12. Keisuke Hirano & Guido W. Imbens & Geert Ridder, 2003. "Efficient Estimation of Average Treatment Effects Using the Estimated Propensity Score," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(4), pages 1161-1189, July.
    13. S. Rao Aiyagari, 1994. "Uninsured Idiosyncratic Risk and Aggregate Saving," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(3), pages 659-684.
    14. Shang-Jin Wei & Xiaobo Zhang, 2011. "The Competitive Saving Motive: Evidence from Rising Sex Ratios and Savings Rates in China," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(3), pages 511-564.
    15. Chamon, Marcos & Liu, Kai & Prasad, Eswar, 2013. "Income uncertainty and household savings in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 164-177.
    16. Xi Li & Xuewen Liu & Yong Wang, 2015. "A Model of China's State Capitalism," HKUST IEMS Working Paper Series 2015-12, HKUST Institute for Emerging Market Studies, revised Feb 2015.
    17. Guiso, Luigi & Jappelli, Tullio & Terlizzese, Daniele, 1992. "Earnings uncertainty and precautionary saving," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 307-337, November.
    18. Feng Huang & Li Gan`, 2017. "The Impacts of China's Urban Employee Basic Medical Insurance on Healthcare Expenditures and Health Outcomes," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 149-163, February.
    19. Christopher D. Carroll & Andrew A. Samwick, 1998. "How Important Is Precautionary Saving?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(3), pages 410-419, August.
    20. Meng, Xin, 2003. "Unemployment, consumption smoothing, and precautionary saving in urban China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 465-485, September.
    21. Appleton, Simon & Knight, John & Song, Lina & Xia, Qingjie, 2002. "Labor retrenchment in China: Determinants and consequences," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(2-3), pages 252-275.
    22. Aart Kraay, 2000. "Household Saving in China," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 14(3), pages 545-570, September.
    23. İmrohoroğlu, Ayşe & Zhao, Kai, 2018. "The chinese saving rate: Long-term care risks, family insurance, and demographics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 33-52.
    24. Caballero, Ricardo J, 1991. "Earnings Uncertainty and Aggregate Wealth Accumulation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 859-871, September.
    25. Arthur Kennickell & Annamaria Lusardi, 2004. "Disentangling the Importance of the Precautionary Saving Mode," NBER Working Papers 10888, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Chang-Tai Hsieh & Zheng (Michael) Song, 2015. "Grasp the Large, Let Go of the Small: The Transformation of the State Sector in China," NBER Working Papers 21006, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Karen E. Dynan, 1993. "How prudent are consumers?," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 135, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    28. Lusardi, Annamaria, 1998. "On the Importance of the Precautionary Saving Motive," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 449-453, May.
    29. Dynan, Karen E, 1993. "How Prudent Are Consumers?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(6), pages 1104-1113, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Liu, Hong & Ma, Jinqiu & Zhao, Liqiu, 2023. "Public long-term care insurance and consumption of elderly households: Evidence from China," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    2. Manger, Mark S. & Matthews, J. Scott, 2021. "Knowing when to splurge: Precautionary saving and Chinese-Canadians," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    3. Ms. Longmei Zhang & Mr. R. Brooks & Ding Ding & Haiyan Ding & Hui He & Jing Lu & Rui Mano, 2018. "China’s High Savings: Drivers, Prospects, and Policies," IMF Working Papers 2018/277, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Hu, Zhi-An & Liu, Chang & Wen, Yiping, 2024. "Working hours and employee health: Evidence from China's workweek reduction policy," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    5. Michael Dotsey, 2019. "Demographic Aging, Industrial Policy, and Chinese Economic Growth," 2019 Meeting Papers 640, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Michael Dotsey & Wenli Li & Fang Yang, 2019. "Demographic Aging, Industrial Policy, and Chinese Economic Growth," Working Papers 19-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    7. Dong-Hyeon Kim & Peiyao Liu & Shu-Chin Lin, 2024. "The moderating role of financial development in the nexus between population aging and saving," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 1-32, April.
    8. Da Zhao & Jingyuan Guo & Hong Zou & Ze Song, 2022. "From Price to Gain: The Evolution of Household Income Volatility and Consumption Insurance in Urban China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 30(6), pages 113-136, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hui He & Feng Huang & Zheng Liu & Dongming Zhu, 2014. "Breaking the “Iron Rice Bowl” and Precautionary Swings: Evidence from Chinese State-Owned Enterprises Reform," Working Paper Series 2014-4, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Erik Hurst & Arthur Kennickell & Annamaria Lusardi & Francisco Torralba, 2005. "Precautionary Savings and the Importance of Business Owners," NBER Working Papers 11731, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Aaberge, Rolf & Liu, Kai & Zhu, Yu, 2017. "Political uncertainty and household savings," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 154-170.
    4. Johannes Geyer, 2011. "The Effect of Health and Employment Risks on Precautionary Savings," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 408, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    5. Lugilde, Alba & Bande, Roberto & Riveiro, Dolores, 2017. "Precautionary Saving: a review of the theory and the evidence," MPRA Paper 77511, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Alba Lugilde & Roberto Bande & Dolores Riveiro, 2018. "Precautionary saving in Spain during the great recession: evidence from a panel of uncertainty indicators," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 1151-1179, December.
    7. Lothar Essig, 2005. "Precautionary saving and old-age provisions: Do subjective saving motive measures work?," MEA discussion paper series 05084, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    8. Essig, Lothar, 2005. "Precautionary saving and old-age provisions : do subjective saving motives measures work?," Papers 05-22, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    9. Essig, Lothar, 2004. "Precautionary saving and old-age provisions: Do subjective saving motives measures work?," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 05-22, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    10. Luc Arrondel & Hector Calvo Pardo, 2008. "Les Français sont-ils prudents ? Patrimoine et risque sur les revenus des ménages," Working Papers halshs-00585994, HAL.
    11. Cubizol, Damien, 2018. "Transition and capital misallocation: the Chinese case," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 88-115.
    12. Chang, Xiao & An, Tongliang & Tam, Pui Sun & Gu, Xinhua, 2020. "National savings rate and sectoral income distribution: An empirical look at China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    13. Andrew Benito, 2002. "Does Job Insecurity Affect Household Consumption?," Working Papers 0225, Banco de España.
    14. Damien Cubizol, 2017. "Transition and capital misallocation: the Chinese case," Working Papers halshs-01176919, HAL.
    15. Orland, Andreas & Rostam-Afschar, Davud, 2021. "Flexible work arrangements and precautionary behavior: Theory and experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 442-481.
    16. Arthur Kennickell & Annamaria Lusardi, 2004. "Disentangling the Importance of the Precautionary Saving Mode," NBER Working Papers 10888, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Abdul Jalil, Ahmad Zafarullah, 2009. "The importance of precautionary saving motive among Indonesian households," MPRA Paper 25189, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Horag Choi & Steven Lugauer & Nelson C. Mark, 2017. "Precautionary Saving of Chinese and U.S. Households," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(4), pages 635-661, June.
    19. Fulford, Scott L., 2015. "The surprisingly low importance of income uncertainty for precaution," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 151-171.
    20. Christopher D. Carroll & Karen E. Dynan & Spencer D. Krane, 2003. "Unemployment Risk and Precautionary Wealth: Evidence from Households' Balance Sheets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 586-604, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Precautionary savings; China’s SOE reform; Natural experiment; Self-selection bias; Difference-in-differences methods;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • P31 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - Socialist Enterprises and Their Transitions
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:94:y:2018:i:c:p:94-113. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.