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The Temporal Links between Conflict and Economic Activity

Author

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  • S. BROCK BLOMBERG

    (Department of Economics Wellesley College)

  • GREGORY D. HESS

    (Department of Economics Oberlin College)

Abstract

Data from 152 countries from 1950 to 1992 are used to estimate the joint determination of external conflict, internal conflict, and the business cycle. Results show that the occurrence of a recession alone will significantly increase the probability of internal conflict, and when combined with the occurrence of an external conflict, recessions will further increase the probability of internal conflict. These results are obtained from estimates of a Markov probability model in which transitions between states of peace and conflict influence each other and the state of the economy. Strong evidence emerges that the internal conflict, external conflict, and the state of the economy are not independent of one another. The results suggest that recessions can provide the spark for increased probabilities of internal and external conflict, which in turn raise the probability of recessions. Such dynamics are suggestive of a poverty-conflict trap-like environment.

Suggested Citation

  • S. Brock Blomberg & Gregory D. Hess, 2002. "The Temporal Links between Conflict and Economic Activity," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 46(1), pages 74-90, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:46:y:2002:i:1:p:74-90
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002702046001005
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hess, Gregory D. & Orphanides, Athanasios, 2001. "Economic conditions, elections, and the magnitude of foreign conflicts," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 121-140, April.
    2. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    3. Ostrom, Charles W. & Job, Brian L., 1986. "The President and the Political Use of Force," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 80(2), pages 541-566, June.
    4. Alesina, Alberto & Özler, Sule & Roubini, Nouriel & Swagel, Phillip, 1996. "Political Instability and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 189-211, June.
    5. repec:bla:econom:v:63:y:1996:i:252:p:649-72 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Paul Collier & Jan Willem Gunning, 1999. "Why Has Africa Grown Slowly?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 3-22, Summer.
    7. Hess, Gregory D & Orphanides, Athanasios, 1995. "War Politics: An Economic, Rational-Voter Framework," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(4), pages 828-846, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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