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Selective Civilian Targeting: The Unintended Consequences of Partial Peace

Author

Listed:
  • Mounu Prem
  • Andrés F. Rivera
  • Dario A. Romero
  • Juan F. Vargas

Abstract

Peace agreements may inadvertently increase selective violence against civilians when they are incomplete in two key dimensions. First, only a fraction of the existing armed groups participates in the agreement. Second, the legitimate government fails to establish an institutional presence in the areas previously controlled by those who do participate. Under these two conditions, the resulting vacuum of power may attract active armed groups who engage in selective civilian victimization to obtain control. Studying the recent Colombian experience, we find that the permanent ceasefire declared by the FARC insurgency in 2014 led to a surge in the targeting of community leaders in former FARC strongholds, perpetrated by armed groups excluded from the peace process, with the goal of consolidating their dominance in those areas. Critically, selective victimization is attenuated by some dimensions of state capacity and exacerbated in places that are more valuable as proxied by the existence of recent land conflicts.

Suggested Citation

  • Mounu Prem & Andrés F. Rivera & Dario A. Romero & Juan F. Vargas, 2022. "Selective Civilian Targeting: The Unintended Consequences of Partial Peace," Quarterly Journal of Political Science, now publishers, vol. 17(3), pages 317-354, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:now:jlqjps:100.00020088
    DOI: 10.1561/100.00020088
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mora, Claudio & Prem, Mounu & Rodriguez-Lesmes, Paul & Vargas, Juan F., 2024. "Health Workforce Reallocation in the Aftermath of Conflict: Evidence from Colombia," SocArXiv 2dwfu, Center for Open Science.
    2. Bernal, Carolina & Prem, Mounu & Vargas, Juan F. & Ortiz, Mónica, 2024. "Peaceful entry: Entrepreneurship dynamics during Colombia’s peace agreement," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    3. Martin, Diego A. & Romero, Dario A., 2024. "Social distancing and COVID-19 under violence: Evidence from Colombia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    4. Perilla, Sergio & Prem, Mounu & Purroy, Miguel E. & Vargas, Juan F., 2024. "How peace saves lives: Evidence from Colombia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    5. Miguel Fajardo-Steinhauser, 2023. "Peace Dividends: The Economic Effects of Colombia's Peace Agreement," Papers 2301.01843, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2024.
    6. Diego A. Martin & Dario A. Romero, 2023. "Pretending to be the Law: Violence to Reduce the COVID-19 Outbreak," Growth Lab Working Papers 220, Harvard's Growth Lab.
    7. Lucas Marín Llanes & Mauricio Velásquez & María Alejandra Vélez, 2022. "Land restitution and selective violence: Evidence from Colombia," Documentos CEDE 20144, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    8. Tate Ryan‐Mosley, 2024. "Digital peacebuilding in post‐conflict Colombia – A conceptual framework," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 15(S3), pages 47-57, June.
    9. Marín Llanes, Lucas & Fernández Sierra, Manuel & Vélez Lesmes, María Alejandra & Martínez González, Eduard & Murillo Sandoval, Paulo, 2024. "Coca-Based Local Growth and Its Socio-Economic Impact in Colombia," Documentos CEDE 21186, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    10. Diego A. Martin & Dario A. Romero, 2023. "Pretending to be the Law: Violence to Reduce the COVID-19 Outbreak," CID Working Papers 155a, Center for International Development at Harvard University.

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