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Using awareness to Z-control a SEIR model with overexposure: Insights on Covid-19 pandemic

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  • Lacitignola, Deborah
  • Diele, Fasma

Abstract

In this paper, we use the Z-control approach to get further insight on the role of awareness in the management of epidemics that, just like Covid-19, display a high rate of overexposure because of the large number of asymptomatic people. We focus on a SEIR model including a overexposure mechanism and consider awareness as a time-dependent variable whose dynamics is not assigned a priori. Exploiting the potential of awareness to produce social distancing and self-isolation among susceptibles, we use it as an indirect control on the class of infective individuals and apply the Z-control approach to detect what trend must awareness display over time in order to eradicate the disease. To this aim, we generalize the Z-control procedure to appropriately treat an uncontrolled model with more than two governing equations. Analytical and numerical investigations on the resulting Z-controlled system show its capability in controlling some representative dynamics within both the backward and the forward scenarios. The awareness variable is qualitatively compared to Google Trends data on Covid-19 that are discussed in the perspective of the Z-control approach, inferring qualitative indications in view of the disease control. The cases of Italy and New Zealand in the first phase of the pandemic are analyzed in detail. The theoretical framework of the Z-control approach can hence offer the chance to reflect on the use of Google Trends as a possible indicator of good management of the epidemic.

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  • Lacitignola, Deborah & Diele, Fasma, 2021. "Using awareness to Z-control a SEIR model with overexposure: Insights on Covid-19 pandemic," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:150:y:2021:i:c:s0960077921004173
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2021.111063
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Deborah Lacitignola, 2021. "Handling Hysteresis in a Referral Marketing Campaign with Self-Information. Hints from Epidemics," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-17, March.

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