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Comprehensive identification and isolation policies have effectively suppressed the spread of COVID-19

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  • Huang, Yubo
  • Wu, Yan
  • Zhang, Weidong

Abstract

The outbreak of COVID-19 has caused severe life and economic damage worldwide. Since the absence of medical resources or targeted therapeutics, systemic containment policies have been prioritized but some critics query what extent can they mitigate this pandemic. We construct a fine-grained transmission dynamics model to forecast the crucial information of public concern, therein using dynamical coefficients to quantify the impact of the implement schedule and intensity of the containment policies on the spread of epidemic. Statistical evidences show the comprehensive identification and quarantine policies eminently contributed to reduce casualties during the phase of a dramatic increase in diagnosed cases in Wuhan and postponing or weakening such policies would undoubtedly exacerbate the epidemic. Hence we suggest that governments should swiftly execute the forceful public health interventions in the initial stage until the pandemic is blocked.

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  • Huang, Yubo & Wu, Yan & Zhang, Weidong, 2020. "Comprehensive identification and isolation policies have effectively suppressed the spread of COVID-19," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:139:y:2020:i:c:s0960077920304392
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110041
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    1. Yuan Liu & Zhi Ning & Yu Chen & Ming Guo & Yingle Liu & Nirmal Kumar Gali & Li Sun & Yusen Duan & Jing Cai & Dane Westerdahl & Xinjin Liu & Ke Xu & Kin-fai Ho & Haidong Kan & Qingyan Fu & Ke Lan, 2020. "Aerodynamic analysis of SARS-CoV-2 in two Wuhan hospitals," Nature, Nature, vol. 582(7813), pages 557-560, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rohitash Chandra & Ayush Jain & Divyanshu Singh Chauhan, 2022. "Deep learning via LSTM models for COVID-19 infection forecasting in India," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(1), pages 1-28, January.
    2. Matouk, A.E., 2020. "Complex dynamics in susceptible-infected models for COVID-19 with multi-drug resistance," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    3. Yiannis Contoyiannis & Stavros G. Stavrinides & Michael P. Hanias & Myron Kampitakis & Pericles Papadopoulos & Rodrigo Picos & Stelios M. Potirakis, 2020. "A Universal Physics-Based Model Describing COVID-19 Dynamics in Europe," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(18), pages 1-19, September.
    4. Ali, Furqan & Ullah, Farman & Khan, Junaid Iqbal & Khan, Jebran & Sardar, Abdul Wasay & Lee, Sungchang, 2023. "COVID-19 spread control policies based early dynamics forecasting using deep learning algorithm," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).

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