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Projections and fractional dynamics of COVID-19 with optimal control strategies

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  • Nabi, Khondoker Nazmoon
  • Kumar, Pushpendra
  • Erturk, Vedat Suat

Abstract

When the entire world is eagerly waiting for a safe, effective and widely available COVID-19 vaccine, unprecedented spikes of new cases are evident in numerous countries. To gain a deeper understanding about the future dynamics of COVID-19, a compartmental mathematical model has been proposed in this paper incorporating all possible non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies. Model parameters have been calibrated using sophisticated trust-region-reflective algorithm and short-term projection results have been illustrated for Bangladesh and India. Control reproduction numbers (Rc) have been calculated in order to get insights about the current epidemic scenario in the above-mentioned countries. Forecasting results depict that the aforesaid countries are having downward trends in daily COVID-19 cases. Nevertheless, as the pandemic is not over in any country, it is highly recommended to use efficacious face coverings and maintain strict physical distancing in public gatherings. All necessary graphical simulations have been performed with the help of Caputo–Fabrizio fractional derivatives. In addition, optimal control strategies for fractional system have been designed and the existence of unique solution has also been showed using Picard–Lindelof technique. Finally, unconditional stability of the fractional numerical technique has been proved.

Suggested Citation

  • Nabi, Khondoker Nazmoon & Kumar, Pushpendra & Erturk, Vedat Suat, 2021. "Projections and fractional dynamics of COVID-19 with optimal control strategies," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:145:y:2021:i:c:s0960077921000424
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2021.110689
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nabi, Khondoker Nazmoon, 2020. "Forecasting COVID-19 pandemic: A data-driven analysis," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    2. Jajarmi, Amin & Baleanu, Dumitru, 2018. "A new fractional analysis on the interaction of HIV with CD4+ T-cells," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 221-229.
    3. Sene, Ndolane, 2020. "SIR epidemic model with Mittag–Leffler fractional derivative," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    4. Nabi, Khondoker Nazmoon & Abboubakar, Hamadjam & Kumar, Pushpendra, 2020. "Forecasting of COVID-19 pandemic: From integer derivatives to fractional derivatives," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
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    Cited by:

    1. Moualkia, Seyfeddine, 2023. "Mathematical analysis of new variant Omicron model driven by Lévy noise and with variable-order fractional derivatives," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    2. Kumar, Pushpendra & Govindaraj, V. & Erturk, Vedat Suat, 2022. "A novel mathematical model to describe the transmission dynamics of tooth cavity in the human population," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    3. Kumar, Pushpendra & Erturk, Vedat Suat & Murillo-Arcila, Marina, 2021. "A complex fractional mathematical modeling for the love story of Layla and Majnun," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    4. Khan, Muhammad Altaf & Atangana, Abdon, 2022. "Mathematical modeling and analysis of COVID-19: A study of new variant Omicron," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 599(C).
    5. Kim, Sangkwon & Kim, Junseok, 2021. "Robust and accurate construction of the local volatility surface using the Black–Scholes equation," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    6. Khan, Hasib & Ibrahim, Muhammad & Abdel-Aty, Abdel-Haleem & Khashan, M. Motawi & Khan, Farhat Ali & Khan, Aziz, 2021. "A fractional order Covid-19 epidemic model with Mittag-Leffler kernel," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    7. Alberto Olivares & Ernesto Staffetti, 2021. "Optimal Control Applied to Vaccination and Testing Policies for COVID-19," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(23), pages 1-22, December.
    8. Kumar, Pushpendra & Erturk, Vedat Suat & Yusuf, Abdullahi & Kumar, Sunil, 2021. "Fractional time-delay mathematical modeling of Oncolytic Virotherapy," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    9. Chatterjee, Amar Nath & Ahmad, Bashir, 2021. "A fractional-order differential equation model of COVID-19 infection of epithelial cells," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    10. Jiraporn Lamwong & Napasool Wongvanich & I-Ming Tang & Puntani Pongsumpun, 2023. "Optimal Control Strategy of a Mathematical Model for the Fifth Wave of COVID-19 Outbreak (Omicron) in Thailand," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-29, December.
    11. Chaharborj, Sarkhosh Seddighi & Nabi, Khondoker Nazmoon & Feng, Koo Lee & Chaharborj, Shahriar Seddighi & Phang, Pei See, 2022. "Controlling COVID-19 transmission with isolation of influential nodes," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    12. Ullah, Mohammad Sharif & Higazy, M. & Ariful Kabir, K.M., 2022. "Modeling the epidemic control measures in overcoming COVID-19 outbreaks: A fractional-order derivative approach," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    13. Tsvetkov, V.P. & Mikheev, S.A. & Tsvetkov, I.V. & Derbov, V.L. & Gusev, A.A. & Vinitsky, S.I., 2022. "Modeling the multifractal dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    14. Castillo, Oscar & Melin, Patricia, 2021. "A new fuzzy fractal control approach of non-linear dynamic systems: The case of controlling the COVID-19 pandemics," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).

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