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Modeling the multifractal dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic

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  • Tsvetkov, V.P.
  • Mikheev, S.A.
  • Tsvetkov, I.V.
  • Derbov, V.L.
  • Gusev, A.A.
  • Vinitsky, S.I.

Abstract

To describe the COVID-19 pandemic, we propose to use a mathematical model of multifractal dynamics, which is alternative to other models and free of their shortcomings. It is based on the fractal properties of pandemics only and allows describing their time behavior using no hypotheses and assumptions about the structure of the disease process. The model is applied to describe the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic from day 1 to day 699 from the beginning of the pandemic. The calculated parameters of the model accurately determine the parameters of the trend and the large jump in daily diseases in this time interval. Within the framework of this model and finite-difference parametric nonlinear equations of the reduced SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) model, the fractal dimensions of various segments of daily incidence in the world and variations in the main reproduction number of COVID-19 were calculated based on the data of COVID-19 world statistics.

Suggested Citation

  • Tsvetkov, V.P. & Mikheev, S.A. & Tsvetkov, I.V. & Derbov, V.L. & Gusev, A.A. & Vinitsky, S.I., 2022. "Modeling the multifractal dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:161:y:2022:i:c:s0960077922005112
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2022.112301
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nabi, Khondoker Nazmoon & Kumar, Pushpendra & Erturk, Vedat Suat, 2021. "Projections and fractional dynamics of COVID-19 with optimal control strategies," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    2. Rihan, F.A. & Al-Mdallal, Q.M. & AlSakaji, H.J. & Hashish, A., 2019. "A fractional-order epidemic model with time-delay and nonlinear incidence rate," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 97-105.
    3. Tsvetkov, V.P. & Mikheyev, S.A. & Tsvetkov, I.V., 2018. "Fractal phase space and fractal entropy of instantaneous cardiac rhythm," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 71-76.
    4. Nabi, Khondoker Nazmoon & Abboubakar, Hamadjam & Kumar, Pushpendra, 2020. "Forecasting of COVID-19 pandemic: From integer derivatives to fractional derivatives," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
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    Cited by:

    1. Correia, J.P. & de Lima, M.M.F. & Silva, R. & Anselmo, D.H.A.L. & Vasconcelos, M.S. & Viswanathan, G.M., 2023. "Multifractal analysis of coronavirus sequences," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).

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