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Global stability analysis of the role of multi-therapies and non-pharmaceutical treatment protocols for COVID-19 pandemic

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  • Bassey, Bassey Echeng
  • Atsu, Jeremiah U.

Abstract

In this paper, we sought and presented an 8-Dimensional deterministic mathematical COVID-19 dynamic model that accounted for the global stability analysis of the role of dual-bilinear treatment protocols of COVID-19 infection. The model, which is characterized by human-to-human transmission mode was investigated using dual non-pharmaceutical (face-masking and social distancing) and dual pharmaceutical (hydroxylchloroquine and azithromycin) as control functions following the interplay of susceptible population and varying infectious population. First, we investigated the model state-space and then established and computed the system reproduction number for both off-treatment ℜ0(1)=10.94 and for onset-treatment ℜ0(2)=3.224. We considered the model for off-treatment and thereafter by incorporating the theory of LaSalle's invariant principle into the classical method of Lyapunov functions, we presented an approach for global stability analysis of COVID-19 dynamics. Numerical verification of system theoretical predictions was computed using in-built Runge-Kutta of order of precision 4 in a Mathcad surface. The set approach produces highly significant results in the main text. For example, while rapid population extinction was observed by the susceptible under off-treatment scenario in the first tf≤18 days, the application of non-pharmaceuticals at early stage of infection proved very effective strategy in curtailing the spread of the virus. Moreso, the implementation of dual pharmacotherapies in conjunction with non-pharmaceuticals yields tremendous rejuvenation of susceptible population (0.5≤Sp(t)≤3.143cells/ml3) with maximal reduction in the rates of isolation, super spreaders and hospitalization of the infectives. Thus, experimental results of investigation affirm the suitability of proposed model for the control and treatment of the deadly disease provided individuals adheres to treatment protocols.

Suggested Citation

  • Bassey, Bassey Echeng & Atsu, Jeremiah U., 2021. "Global stability analysis of the role of multi-therapies and non-pharmaceutical treatment protocols for COVID-19 pandemic," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:143:y:2021:i:c:s0960077920309656
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110574
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ndaïrou, Faïçal & Area, Iván & Nieto, Juan J. & Torres, Delfim F.M., 2020. "Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 transmission dynamics with a case study of Wuhan," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    2. Asamoah, Joshua Kiddy K. & Owusu, Mark A. & Jin, Zhen & Oduro, F. T. & Abidemi, Afeez & Gyasi, Esther Opoku, 2020. "Global stability and cost-effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 considering the impact of the environment: using data from Ghana," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    3. Altan, Aytaç & Karasu, Seçkin, 2020. "Recognition of COVID-19 disease from X-ray images by hybrid model consisting of 2D curvelet transform, chaotic salp swarm algorithm and deep learning technique," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
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