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Effect of two vaccine doses in the SEIR epidemic model using a stochastic cellular automaton

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  • Gabrick, Enrique C.
  • Protachevicz, Paulo R.
  • Batista, Antonio M.
  • Iarosz, Kelly C.
  • de Souza, Silvio L.T.
  • Almeida, Alexandre C.L.
  • Szezech, José D.
  • Mugnaine, Michele
  • Caldas, Iberê L.

Abstract

In this work, to support decision making of immunisation strategies, we propose the inclusion of two vaccination doses in the SEIR model considering a stochastic cellular automaton. We analyse three different scenarios of vaccination: (i) unlimited doses, (ii) limited doses into susceptible individuals, and (iii) limited doses randomly distributed overall individuals. Our results suggest that the number of vaccinations and time to start the vaccination is more relevant than the vaccine efficacy, delay between the first and second doses, and delay between vaccinated groups. The scenario (i) shows that the solution can converge early to a disease-free equilibrium for a fraction of individuals vaccinated with the first dose. In the scenario (ii), few two vaccination doses divided into a small number of applications reduce the number of infected people more than into many applications. In addition, there is a low waste of doses for the first application and an increase of the waste in the second dose. The scenario (iii) presents an increase in the waste of doses from the first to second applications more than the scenario (ii). In the scenario (iii), the total of wasted doses increases linearly with the number of applications. Furthermore, the number of effective doses in the application of consecutive groups decays exponentially overtime.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabrick, Enrique C. & Protachevicz, Paulo R. & Batista, Antonio M. & Iarosz, Kelly C. & de Souza, Silvio L.T. & Almeida, Alexandre C.L. & Szezech, José D. & Mugnaine, Michele & Caldas, Iberê L., 2022. "Effect of two vaccine doses in the SEIR epidemic model using a stochastic cellular automaton," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 597(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:597:y:2022:i:c:s0378437122002278
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2022.127258
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Gabrick, Enrique C. & Sayari, Elaheh & Protachevicz, Paulo R. & Szezech, José D. & Iarosz, Kelly C. & de Souza, Silvio L.T. & Almeida, Alexandre C.L. & Viana, Ricardo L. & Caldas, Iberê L. & Batista, , 2023. "Unpredictability in seasonal infectious diseases spread," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    2. Khan, Junaid Iqbal & Ullah, Farman & Lee, Sungchang, 2022. "Attention based parameter estimation and states forecasting of COVID-19 pandemic using modified SIQRD Model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 165(P2).
    3. Meng, Xueyu & Lin, Jianhong & Fan, Yufei & Gao, Fujuan & Fenoaltea, Enrico Maria & Cai, Zhiqiang & Si, Shubin, 2023. "Coupled disease-vaccination behavior dynamic analysis and its application in COVID-19 pandemic," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).

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