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Lessons from being challenged by COVID-19

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  • Tagliazucchi, E.
  • Balenzuela, P.
  • Travizano, M.
  • Mindlin, G.B.
  • Mininni, P.D.

Abstract

We present results of different approaches to model the evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic in Argentina, with a special focus on the megacity conformed by the city of Buenos Aires and its metropolitan area, including a total of 41 districts with over 13 million inhabitants. We first highlight the relevance of interpreting the early stage of the epidemic in light of incoming infectious travelers from abroad. Next, we critically evaluate certain proposed solutions to contain the epidemic based on instantaneous modifications of the reproductive number. Finally, we build increasingly complex and realistic models, ranging from simple homogeneous models used to estimate local reproduction numbers, to fully coupled inhomogeneous (deterministic or stochastic) models incorporating mobility estimates from cell phone location data. The models are capable of producing forecasts highly consistent with the official number of cases with minimal parameter fitting and fine-tuning. We discuss the strengths and limitations of the proposed models, focusing on the validity of different necessary first approximations, and caution future modeling efforts to exercise great care in the interpretation of long-term forecasts, and in the adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions backed by numerical simulations.

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  • Tagliazucchi, E. & Balenzuela, P. & Travizano, M. & Mindlin, G.B. & Mininni, P.D., 2020. "Lessons from being challenged by COVID-19," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:137:y:2020:i:c:s0960077920303180
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109923
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Amaral, Marco A. & Oliveira, Marcelo M. de & Javarone, Marco A., 2021. "An epidemiological model with voluntary quarantine strategies governed by evolutionary game dynamics," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    2. Bimal Kumar Mishra, 2022. "Stochastic models on the transmission of novel COVID-19," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 13(2), pages 599-603, April.
    3. de Souza, Silvio L.T. & Batista, Antonio M. & Caldas, Iberê L. & Iarosz, Kelly C. & Szezech Jr, José D., 2021. "Dynamics of epidemics: Impact of easing restrictions and control of infection spread," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    4. Kaxiras, Efthimios & Neofotistos, Georgios & Angelaki, Eleni, 2020. "The first 100 days: Modeling the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    5. Mishra, Bimal Kumar & Keshri, Ajit Kumar & Saini, Dinesh Kumar & Ayesha, Syeda & Mishra, Binay Kumar & Rao, Yerra Shankar, 2021. "Mathematical model, forecast and analysis on the spread of COVID-19," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    6. Christos A. Kontovas & Krishna Sooprayen, 2020. "Maritime Cargo Prioritisation during a Prolonged Pandemic Lockdown Using an Integrated TOPSIS-Knapsack Technique: A Case Study on Small Island Developing States—The Rodrigues Island," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-20, September.
    7. Ghosh, Mousam & Ghosh, Swarnankur & Ghosh, Suman & Panda, Goutam Kumar & Saha, Pradip Kumar, 2021. "Dynamic model of infected population due to spreading of pandemic COVID-19 considering both intra and inter zone mobilization factors with rate of detection," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    8. Angeli, Mattia & Neofotistos, Georgios & Mattheakis, Marios & Kaxiras, Efthimios, 2022. "Modeling the effect of the vaccination campaign on the COVID-19 pandemic," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).

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