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Investigating the dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic in India under lockdown

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  • Pai, Chintamani
  • Bhaskar, Ankush
  • Rawoot, Vaibhav

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the ongoing dynamics of COVID-19 in India after its emergence in Wuhan, China in December 2019. We discuss the effect of nationwide lockdown implemented in India on March 25, 2020 to prevent the spread of COVID-19. Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model is used to forecast active COVID-19 cases in India considering the effect of nationwide lockdown and possible inflation in the active cases after its removal on May 3, 2020. Our model predicts that with the ongoing lockdown, the peak of active infected cases around 43,000 will occur in the mid of May, 2020. We also predict a 7 to 21% increase in the peak value of active infected cases for a variety of hypothetical scenarios reflecting a relative relaxation in the control strategies implemented by the government in the post-lockdown period. For India, it is an important decision to come up with a non-pharmaceutical control strategy such as nationwide lockdown for 40 days to prolong the higher phases of COVID-19 and to avoid severe load on its public health-care system. As the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak remains a global threat, it is a challenge for all the countries to come up with effective public health and administrative strategies to battle against COVID-19 and sustain their economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Pai, Chintamani & Bhaskar, Ankush & Rawoot, Vaibhav, 2020. "Investigating the dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic in India under lockdown," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:138:y:2020:i:c:s0960077920303878
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109988
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    Cited by:

    1. Avila-Ponce de León, Ugo & Pérez, Ángel G.C. & Avila-Vales, Eric, 2020. "An SEIARD epidemic model for COVID-19 in Mexico: Mathematical analysis and state-level forecast," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    2. Cooper, Ian & Mondal, Argha & Antonopoulos, Chris G., 2020. "Dynamic tracking with model-based forecasting for the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    3. Aguilar-Canto, Fernando Javier & de León, Ugo Avila-Ponce & Avila-Vales, Eric, 2022. "Sensitivity theorems of a model of multiple imperfect vaccines for COVID-19," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    4. de Souza, Silvio L.T. & Batista, Antonio M. & Caldas, Iberê L. & Iarosz, Kelly C. & Szezech Jr, José D., 2021. "Dynamics of epidemics: Impact of easing restrictions and control of infection spread," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    5. Sharma, Natasha & Verma, Atul Kumar & Gupta, Arvind Kumar, 2021. "Spatial network based model forecasting transmission and control of COVID-19," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 581(C).
    6. S. Chakraborty, 2023. "Monitoring COVID-19 Cases and Vaccination in Indian States and Union Territories Using Unsupervised Machine Learning Algorithm," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 967-989, August.
    7. Shaden A. M. Khalifa & Briksam S. Mohamed & Mohamed H. Elashal & Ming Du & Zhiming Guo & Chao Zhao & Syed Ghulam Musharraf & Mohammad H. Boskabady & Haged H. R. El-Seedi & Thomas Efferth & Hesham R. E, 2020. "Comprehensive Overview on Multiple Strategies Fighting COVID-19," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(16), pages 1-13, August.
    8. Kai Yin & Anirban Mondal & Martial Ndeffo-Mbah & Paromita Banerjee & Qimin Huang & David Gurarie, 2022. "Bayesian Inference for COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics in India Using a Modified SEIR Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(21), pages 1-18, October.

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