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A statistical model for the estimation of natural gas consumption

Author

Listed:
  • Vondrácek, Jirí
  • Pelikán, Emil
  • Konár, Ondrej
  • Cermáková, Jana
  • Eben, Krystof
  • Malý, Marek
  • Brabec, Marek

Abstract

In this paper we present a statistical approach to natural gas consumption estimation of individual residential and small commercial customers. The approach is based on nonlinear regression principles. Parameters are estimated using mainly two real data sets - ordinary (approximately annual) meter readings of almost all customers and additional (approximately monthly) meter readings designed and operated within the frame of cooperation between the Institute of Computer Science of the Czech Academy of Sciences (ICS) and the West Bohemian Gas Distribution Company, a part of the RWE Group (WBG). The model was tested on various data sets. It has broad applicability in many areas of gas industry.

Suggested Citation

  • Vondrácek, Jirí & Pelikán, Emil & Konár, Ondrej & Cermáková, Jana & Eben, Krystof & Malý, Marek & Brabec, Marek, 2008. "A statistical model for the estimation of natural gas consumption," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 85(5), pages 362-370, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:85:y:2008:i:5:p:362-370
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Li, Junchen & Dong, Xiucheng & Shangguan, Jianxin & Hook, Mikael, 2011. "Forecasting the growth of China’s natural gas consumption," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1380-1385.
    2. Szoplik, Jolanta, 2015. "Forecasting of natural gas consumption with artificial neural networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 208-220.
    3. Jean Gaston Tamba & Salom Ndjakomo Essiane & Emmanuel Flavian Sapnken & Francis Djanna Koffi & Jean Luc Nsouand l & Bozidar Soldo & Donatien Njomo, 2018. "Forecasting Natural Gas: A Literature Survey," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(3), pages 216-249.
    4. Marta P. Fernandes & Joaquim L. Viegas & Susana M. Vieira & João M. C. Sousa, 2017. "Segmentation of Residential Gas Consumers Using Clustering Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-26, December.
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    6. Soldo, Božidar, 2012. "Forecasting natural gas consumption," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 26-37.
    7. Ravnik, J. & Hriberšek, M., 2019. "A method for natural gas forecasting and preliminary allocation based on unique standard natural gas consumption profiles," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 149-162.
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    10. Meira, Erick & Cyrino Oliveira, Fernando Luiz & de Menezes, Lilian M., 2022. "Forecasting natural gas consumption using Bagging and modified regularization techniques," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    11. Potočnik, Primož & Soldo, Božidar & Šimunović, Goran & Šarić, Tomislav & Jeromen, Andrej & Govekar, Edvard, 2014. "Comparison of static and adaptive models for short-term residential natural gas forecasting in Croatia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 94-103.
    12. Brkić, Dejan & Tanasković, Toma I., 2008. "Systematic approach to natural gas usage for domestic heating in urban areas," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 1738-1753.
    13. Wang, Jianzhou & Jiang, Haiyan & Zhou, Qingping & Wu, Jie & Qin, Shanshan, 2016. "China’s natural gas production and consumption analysis based on the multicycle Hubbert model and rolling Grey model," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1149-1167.
    14. Li, Wei & Lu, Can, 2019. "The multiple effectiveness of state natural gas consumption constraint policies for achieving sustainable development targets in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 685-698.
    15. Brabec, Marek & Konár, Ondrej & Pelikán, Emil & Malý, Marek, 2008. "A nonlinear mixed effects model for the prediction of natural gas consumption by individual customers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 659-678.
    16. Bianco, Vincenzo & Scarpa, Federico & Tagliafico, Luca A., 2014. "Scenario analysis of nonresidential natural gas consumption in Italy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 392-403.
    17. Özmen, Ayşe & Yılmaz, Yavuz & Weber, Gerhard-Wilhelm, 2018. "Natural gas consumption forecast with MARS and CMARS models for residential users," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 357-381.
    18. Ayşe Özmen, 2023. "Sparse regression modeling for short- and long‐term natural gas demand prediction," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 322(2), pages 921-946, March.
    19. Azadeh, A. & Asadzadeh, S.M. & Saberi, M. & Nadimi, V. & Tajvidi, A. & Sheikalishahi, M., 2011. "A Neuro-fuzzy-stochastic frontier analysis approach for long-term natural gas consumption forecasting and behavior analysis: The cases of Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and UAE," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(11), pages 3850-3859.
    20. Luo, Tao & Pan, Junting & Fu, Lintao & Mei, Zili & Kong, Cuixue & Huang, Hailong, 2017. "Reducing biogas emissions from village-scale plant with optimal floating-drum biogas storage tank and operation parameters," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 312-318.
    21. Hribar, Rok & Potočnik, Primož & Šilc, Jurij & Papa, Gregor, 2019. "A comparison of models for forecasting the residential natural gas demand of an urban area," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 511-522.

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