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North American Natural Gas Supply Forecast: The Hubbert Method Including the Effects of Institutions

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  • Douglas B. Reynolds

    (Department of Economics, School of Management, University of Alaska Fairbanks, P.O. Box 756080, Fairbanks, AK 99775-6080; USA)

  • Marek Kolodziej

    (Center for Energy and Environmental Studies, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA)

Abstract

In this article, the U.S. and southern Canadian natural gas supply market is considered. An important model for oil and natural gas supply is the Hubbert curve. Not all regions of the world are producing oil or natural gas following a Hubbert curve, even when price and market conditions are accounted for. One reason is that institutions are affecting supply. We investigate the possible effects of oil and gas market institutions in North America on natural gas supply. A multi-cycle Hubbert curve with inflection points similar to the Soviet Union’s oil production multi-cycle Hubbert curve is used to determine North American natural gas discovery rates and to analyze how market specific institutions caused the inflection points. In addition, we analyze the latest shale natural gas projections critically. While currently, unconventional resources of natural gas suggest that North American natural gas production will increase without bound, the model here suggests a peak in North American natural gas supplies could happen in 2013.

Suggested Citation

  • Douglas B. Reynolds & Marek Kolodziej, 2009. "North American Natural Gas Supply Forecast: The Hubbert Method Including the Effects of Institutions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 2(2), pages 1-38, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:2:y:2009:i:2:p:269-306:d:5072
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    Cited by:

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    2. Sen, Doruk & Günay, M. Erdem & Tunç, K.M. Murat, 2019. "Forecasting annual natural gas consumption using socio-economic indicators for making future policies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 1106-1118.
    3. Fang, Jianchun & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Lu, Zhou & Wu, Wanshan, 2018. "Estimating Peak uranium production in China – Based on a Stella model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 250-258.
    4. Waisman, Henri & Rozenberg, Julie & Sassi, Olivier & Hourcade, Jean-Charles, 2012. "Peak Oil profiles through the lens of a general equilibrium assessment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 744-753.
    5. Soldo, Božidar, 2012. "Forecasting natural gas consumption," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 26-37.
    6. Reynolds, Douglas B. & Pippenger, Michael K., 2010. "OPEC and Venezuelan oil production: Evidence against a cartel hypothesis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 6045-6055, October.
    7. Reynolds, Douglas B. & Baek, Jungho, 2012. "Much ado about Hotelling: Beware the ides of Hubbert," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 162-170.
    8. Reynolds, Douglas B., 2014. "World oil production trend: Comparing Hubbert multi-cycle curves," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 62-71.
    9. Carlo Andrea Bollino & Francesco Asdrubali & Paolo Polinori & Simona Bigerna & Silvia Micheli & Claudia Guattari & Antonella Rotili, 2017. "A Note on Medium- and Long-Term Global Energy Prospects and Scenarios," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-25, May.
    10. Wang, Ting & Lin, Boqiang, 2014. "Impacts of unconventional gas development on China׳s natural gas production and import," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 546-554.
    11. Douglas B. Reynolds, 2024. "U.S. shale oil production and trend estimation: Forecasting a Hubbert model," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(1), pages 468-487, January.
    12. Chen, Yizhong & Li, Jing & Lu, Hongwei & Yang, Yiyang, 2020. "Impact of unconventional natural gas development on regional water resources and market supply in China from the perspective of game analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    13. Kumar, Vinod Vijay & Shastri, Yogendra & Hoadley, Andrew, 2020. "A consequence analysis study of natural gas consumption in a developing country: Case of India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    14. Yongxiu He & Yangyang Liu & Tian Xia & Min Du & Hongzhen Guo, 2014. "The Optimal Price Ratio of Typical Energy Sources in Beijing Based on the Computable General Equilibrium Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 7(5), pages 1-24, April.
    15. Tomasz Cieślik & Piotr Narloch & Adam Szurlej & Krzysztof Kogut, 2022. "Indirect Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Natural Gas Consumption by Commercial Consumers in a Selected City in Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-18, February.

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