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Forecasting semi-dynamic response of natural gas networks to nodal gas consumptions using genetic fuzzy systems

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  • Askari, S.
  • Montazerin, N.
  • Zarandi, M.H. Fazel

Abstract

-Semi-dynamic behavior of natural gas distribution network and nodal gas consumptions are predicted. Traditional Hardy-Cross method for analysis of the gas network is replaced with a direct mathematical solution of mass conservation equations at network nodes to yield nodal static pressures and volumetric flow rates for the coming days. After the calculation of static pressure distribution in a network for near future days, the problem of pressure drop in the network which is a serious problem in cold seasons can be managed in advance. TSK (Takagi-Sugeno-Kang) fuzzy system is used for forecasting. Structure identification of the system is carried out using CVIs (Cluster Validity Indices) and PFCM (Possibilistic Fuzzy C-Means algorithm) to determine number of rules which is also chosen such that testing error of the system does not exceed a predefined value. Premise and t-norm parameters of the TSK system are tuned by GAs (Genetic Algorithms) and their consequent parameters are adjusted using LSE (Least Square Estimate). Comparison of testing error of the TSK system for modeling benchmark data with other popular methods demonstrates its suitability for forecasting nodal gas consumptions.

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  • Askari, S. & Montazerin, N. & Zarandi, M.H. Fazel, 2015. "Forecasting semi-dynamic response of natural gas networks to nodal gas consumptions using genetic fuzzy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 252-266.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:83:y:2015:i:c:p:252-266
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2015.02.020
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    Cited by:

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    2. Balitskiy, Sergey & Bilan, Yuriy & Strielkowski, Wadim & Štreimikienė, Dalia, 2016. "Energy efficiency and natural gas consumption in the context of economic development in the European Union," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 156-168.
    3. Emmanuel Flavian Sapnken & Jean Gaston Tamba & Salome Njakomo Essiane & Francis Djanna Koffi & Donatien Njomo, 2018. "Modeling and Forecasting Gasoline Consumption in Cameroon using Linear Regression Models," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(2), pages 111-120.
    4. Szoplik, Jolanta, 2016. "Improving the natural gas transporting based on the steady state simulation results," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 105-116.
    5. Spoladore, Alessandro & Borelli, Davide & Devia, Francesco & Mora, Flavio & Schenone, Corrado, 2016. "Model for forecasting residential heat demand based on natural gas consumption and energy performance indicators," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 488-499.
    6. Zhihua Chen & Hui Wang & Tongxia Li & Ieongcheng Si, 2021. "Demand for Storage and Import of Natural Gas in China until 2060: Simulation with a Dynamic Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-19, August.
    7. Reza Hafezi & Amir Naser Akhavan & Mazdak Zamani & Saeed Pakseresht & Shahaboddin Shamshirband, 2019. "Developing a Data Mining Based Model to Extract Predictor Factors in Energy Systems: Application of Global Natural Gas Demand," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-22, October.
    8. Su, Huai & Zio, Enrico & Zhang, Jinjun & Xu, Mingjing & Li, Xueyi & Zhang, Zongjie, 2019. "A hybrid hourly natural gas demand forecasting method based on the integration of wavelet transform and enhanced Deep-RNN model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 585-597.
    9. Askari, S. & Montazerin, N. & Fazel Zarandi, M.H., 2016. "Gas networks simulation from disaggregation of low frequency nodal gas consumption," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1286-1298.

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